A comprehensive disaster impact assessment of extreme rainfall events under climate change: a case study in Zheng-wen river basin, Taiwan

Wu, Tingyeh; Li, Hsin-Chi; Wei, Shaio-Pin; Chen, Weibo; Chen, Ming-Fong; Su, Yuan; Liu, Jen-Jih; Shih, Hung-Ju

doi:10.1007/s12665-016-5370-6

Cited by 11 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Here we further separated typhoon events into the top 5%, 5%-10%, and 10%-15% to confirm possible changes in landslide-area characteristics from the base period to the end of the 21st century. Previous studies in Taiwan often used m01 and c0 as simulation scenarios for the base period and the end of the 21st century, and they explored the impact of climate change [16,36,37]. Figure 4 shows the landslide-area characteristics of the top 5%, 5%-10%, and 10%-15% typhoons during the base period and the end of the 21st century in the Shihmen Reservoir catchment and the Xindian River catchment simulated only with the m01 and c0 scenarios.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Landslide Characteristic Assessment Using Ensemble Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Taiwan

Chen

Chao

et al. 2020

Water

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Affected by climate change owing to global warming, the frequency of extreme rainfall events has gradually increased in recent years. Many studies have analyzed the impacts of climate change in various fields. However, uncertainty about the scenarios they used is still an important issue. This study used two and four multi-scenarios at the base period (1979–2003) and the end of the 21st century (2075–2099) to collect the top-ranking typhoons and analyze the rainfall conditions of these typhoons in two catchments in northern Taiwan. The landslide-area characteristics caused by these typhoons were estimated using empirical relationships, with rainfall conditions established by a previous study. In addition to counting landslide-area characteristics caused by the typhoons of each single scenario, we also used the ensemble method to combine all scenarios to calculate landslide-area characteristic statistics. Comparing the statistical results of each single scenario and the ensembles, we found that the ensemble method minimized the uncertainty and identified the possible most severe case from the simulation. We further separated typhoons into the top 5%, 5%–10%, and 10%–15% to confirm possible changes in landslide-area characteristics under climate change. We noticed that the uncertainty of the base period and the end of the 21st century almost overlapped if only a single scenario was used. In contrast, the ensemble approach successfully distinguished the differences in both the average values of landslide-area characteristics and the 95% confidence intervals. The ensemble results indicated that the landslide magnitude triggered by medium- and high-level typhoons (top 5%–15%) will increase by 24%–29% and 125%–200% under climate change in the Shihmen Reservoir catchment and the Xindian River catchment, respectively, while landslides triggered by extreme-level typhoons (top 5%) will increase by 8% and 77%, respectively. Still, the uncertainty of landslide-area characteristics caused by extreme typhoon events is slightly high, indicating that we need to include more possible scenarios in future work.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Landslide Characteristic Assessment Using Ensemble Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Taiwan

Chen

Chao

et al. 2020

Water

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“…In this process, the various physical mechanisms could be simulated by an effective combination of models, such as rainfall, landslide, and debris flow. Loss assessment must be applied for evaluating the economic impacts of slope land disasters Wu et al, 2016b). Detailed discussions on each part are introduced in the following sections.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, Liu et al (2013) combined landslides, debris flow, and sediment transport to simulate turbidity in a reservoir, based on an assumed scenario. Similarly, Wu et al (2016b) comprehensively assessed the impacts of landslides, debris flow, flooding, and coastline disasters. In the present study, the scenario approach was used in a selected watershed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Events on Slope Land Hazard – A Case Study of Xindian Watershed in Taiwan

Wei¹,

Li²,

Shih³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. The production and transportation of sediment in mountainous areas caused by extreme rainfall events triggered by climate change is a challenging problem, especially in watersheds. To investigate this issue, the present study adopted the scenario approach coupled with simulations using various models. Upon careful model selection, the simulation of projected rainfall, landslide, debris flow, and loss assessment were integrated by connecting the models' input and output. The Xindian 10 watershed upstream from Taipei, Taiwan, was identified and two extreme rainfall scenarios from the late 20th and 21st centuries were selected to compare the effects of climate change. Using sequence simulations, the chain reaction and compounded disaster were analysed. Moreover, the potential effects of slope land hazards were compared between the present and future, and the likely impacts in the selected watershed areas were discussed with respect to extreme climate. The results established that the unstable sediment volume would increase by 28.81% in terms of the projected extreme event. The total 15 economic losses caused by the chain impacts of slope land disasters under climate change would be increased to US$ 358.25 million. Owing to the geographical environment of the Taipei metropolitan area, the indirect losses of water supply shortage caused by slope land disasters would be more serious than direct losses. In particular, avenues to ensure the availability of water supply will be the most critical disaster prevention topic in the event of a future slope land disaster. The results obtained from this study are expected to be beneficial, because they provide critical information for devising long-term strategies to 20 combat the impacts of slope land disasters.

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“…Physically-based computational model SOBEK which was developed by Deltares (https://www.deltares.nl/en/) was used in the present work. SOBEK has been successfully applied in various flood forecasting, drainage system optimization, irrigation system control, sewer overflow design, river morphology, salt intrusion and surface water quality studies [44,[50][51][52][53][54].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Wei et al [54] employed the SOBEK channel flow (CF) module and the rainfall-runoff (RR) module in river channel simulations to estimate river flow risks under climate change in the Tsengwen River basin, Tainan, Taiwan. Wu et al [53] integrated the SOBEK model for flood simulations, a landslide model, and a coastal model to assess disaster impacts comprehensively according to extreme rainfall scenarios under climate change.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a New Generation of Flood Inundation Maps—A Case Study of the Coastal City of Tainan, Taiwan

Doong

Vojinović

et al. 2016

Water

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Abstract:Flood risk management has become a growing priority for city managers and disaster risk prevention agencies worldwide. Correspondingly, large investments are made towards data collection, archiving and analysis and technologies such as geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing play important role in this regard. GIS technologies offer valuable means for delineation of flood plains, zoning of areas that need protection from floods and identification of plans for development and scoping of various kinds of flood protection measures. Flood inundation maps (FIMs) are particularly useful in planning flood disaster risk responses. The purpose of the present paper is to describe efforts in developing new generation of FIMs at the city scale and to demonstrate effectiveness of such maps in the case of the coastal city of Tainan, Taiwan. In the present work, besides pluvial floods, the storm surge influence is also considered. The 1D/2D coupled model SOBEK was used for flood simulations. Different indicators such as Probability of Detection (POD) and Scale of Accuracy (SA) were applied in the calibration and validation stages of the work and their corresponding values were found to be up to 88.1% and 68.0%, respectively. From the overall analysis, it came up that land elevation, tidal phase, and storm surge are the three dominant factors that influence flooding in Tainan. A large number of model simulations were carried out in order to produce FIMs which were then effectively applied in the stakeholder engagement process.

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A comprehensive disaster impact assessment of extreme rainfall events under climate change: a case study in Zheng-wen river basin, Taiwan

Cited by 11 publications

References 13 publications

Future Landslide Characteristic Assessment Using Ensemble Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Taiwan

Future Landslide Characteristic Assessment Using Ensemble Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Taiwan

Potential Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Events on Slope Land Hazard – A Case Study of Xindian Watershed in Taiwan

Development of a New Generation of Flood Inundation Maps—A Case Study of the Coastal City of Tainan, Taiwan

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