A comprehensive statistical assessment of drought indices to monitor drought status in Bangladesh

Uddin, Md. Jalal; Hu, Jichao; Islam, Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul; Eibek, Kutub Uddin; Nasrin, Zahan Most.

doi:10.1007/s12517-020-05302-0

Cited by 69 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…According to the Global Climate Risk (GCR) index, Bangladesh is now ranked 5th extreme disaster risk-prone country in the world (Dastagir 2015). Among the extreme climatic disasters, drought is the most complicated, recurring, and least understood natural disaster (Islam et al 2017;Zhang et al 2019;Uddin et al 2020). Drought affects a million people and causes tremendous environmental degradation, social crisis, livelihood problems, economic disruption, and loss of lives compared with other climate-related disasters like floods, cyclones (Habiba and Shaw 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Perceived and Actual Risks of Drought : Household and Expert Views From Lower Teesta River Basin of Northern Bangladesh

Salam

Ghose

Shill

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Disaster risk perception, as well as risk appraisal, play a pivotal role in making the disaster risk reduction policy. This study examines the actual vs perceived drought risks by constructing risk indices at the household and expert levels using survey data from the lower Teesta River Basin in northern Bangladesh. Survey data were collected from 450 farmers based on the structural questionnaire. A composite drought risk index was developed to understand households’ perceived and actual risks in the designated areas. The results show that the actual and perceived risk values differ significantly among the three designated sites of Ganai, Ismail, and Par Sekh Sundar. The risk levels also differ significantly across the household’s gender, income, occupation, and educational attainment. People with poor socio-economic status are more prone to drought risk than others. Results also reveal that the mean level of perceived risk agrees well with the actual risk; females perceive comparatively higher risk than males. Expert views on drought risk are similar to the individual household level perceived risk. The outcomes of this study would help the policy-makers and disaster managers to understand the concrete risk scenarios of the study areas and to take timely and appropriate disaster risk reduction actions for ensuring a drought-resistant society.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Perceived and Actual Risks of Drought : Household and Expert Views From Lower Teesta River Basin of Northern Bangladesh

Salam

Ghose

Shill

et al. 2021

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…According to the Global Climate Risk (GCR) index, Bangladesh is now ranked fifth extreme disaster risk-prone country in the world (Dastagir 2015). Among the extreme climatic disasters, drought is the most complicated, recurring, and least understood natural disaster (Islam et al 2017;Zhang et al 2019;Uddin et al 2020). Drought affects millions of people and causes tremendous environmental degradation, social crisis, livelihood problems, economic disruption, and loss of lives (Habiba and Shaw 2012;Islam and Khan 2018;Pei et al 2018;Tasnuva et al 2020;Salam et al 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Perceived and actual risks of drought: household and expert views from the lower Teesta River Basin of northern Bangladesh

et al. 2021

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Disaster risk perception and risk appraisal are essential in formulating an appropriate disaster risk reduction policy. This study examines the actual vs perceived drought risks by constructing risk indices at the household and expert levels using survey data from the lower Teesta River Basin in northern Bangladesh. The survey data were collected from 450 farmers using a structured questionnaire conducted between August and September 2019. A composite drought risk index was developed to understand households’ perceived and actual risks in the designated areas. The results show that the actual and perceived risk values differ significantly among the three case study sites locally known as Ganai, Ismail, and Par Sekh Sundar. The risk levels also differ significantly across the households’ gender, income, occupation, and educational attainment. People with insolvent socioeconomic status are more prone to drought risk compared to others. Results also reveal that the mean level of perceived risk agrees well with the actual risk, whereas females perceive comparatively higher risk than their male counterparts. Expert views on drought risk are similar to the individual household level perceived risk. The outcomes of this study would assist the policymakers and disaster managers to understand the concrete risk scenarios and take timely disaster risk reduction actions for ensuring a drought-resistant society.

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“…It was found to deliver a consistent result for both temporal and spatial scales. Likewise, several studies have used SPEI to assess drought events in different regions (Benlin et al 2017;Ahmed et al 2018;Polong et al 2019;Uddin et al 2020;Zhai et al 2020) Although SPI is among methods recommended by the World Meteorological Organization to monitor drought events (Svoboda and Fuchs 2017a), only a few studies were conducted over Africa, specifically over the Central East Africa region. Most of the studies conducted over Africa revealed that the SPI method can provide consistent results.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Drought Event, its Trend and Teleconnected Factors Over Burundi, Central East Africa

Nkunzimana¹,

Wang²,

Abdallah³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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This study assessed the drought events across Burundi for 37 years ranging from 1981 to 2017. The drought assessment was conducted using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 1, 3, 6 and 12-month time scales. The Mann Kendall and Modified Mann Kendall trend tests and Sen’s slope statistic tests were used to analyse the spatiotemporal drought trend. The overall analysis of SPI-3, SPI-6 and SPI-12 outputs revealed that the Northern part of Burundi was the most threatened by dry events, and more than 80% of the extremely and severely dry events occurred within the period 1993–2000. The drought magnitude varied highly in the short rains season (SOND) than during the long rains season (MAM) specifically during the 1990s decade. The cumulative frequency of extremely dry events was very high in the North with 5.2%, 6.1% and 7.4 % at 3, 6 and 12-month time scales respectively. Likewise, the northern part experienced both short, medium and long dry periods, thus 88 consecutive dry months within only 8 years. The North and East regions exhibited a positive increasing trend over annual and seasonal time scales at both 3, 6, and 12 months of SPI analysis while the mountainous region and the South experienced a significant decreasing trend. The first abrupt point issued by forward and backward sequential statistics occurred in 1990, the year corresponding to the beginning of the driest period. Dry years are associated with circulation anomalies over the Indian Ocean and La Nina events.

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A comprehensive statistical assessment of drought indices to monitor drought status in Bangladesh

Cited by 69 publications

References 30 publications

Perceived and Actual Risks of Drought : Household and Expert Views From Lower Teesta River Basin of Northern Bangladesh

Perceived and Actual Risks of Drought : Household and Expert Views From Lower Teesta River Basin of Northern Bangladesh

Perceived and actual risks of drought: household and expert views from the lower Teesta River Basin of northern Bangladesh

Assessment of Drought Event, its Trend and Teleconnected Factors Over Burundi, Central East Africa

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