A computational cognitive model of behaviors and decisions that modulate pandemic transmission: Expectancy-value, attitudes, self-efficacy, and motivational intensity

Abstract

We present a computational cognitive model that incorporates and formalizes aspects of theories of individual-level behavior change and present simulations of COVID-19 behavioral response that modulates transmission rates. This formalization includes addressing the psychological constructs of attitudes, self-efficacy, and motivational intensity. The model yields signature phenomena that appear in the oscillating dynamics of mask wearing and the effective reproduction number, as well as the overall increase of rates of mask-wearing in response to awareness of an ongoing pandemic.

Computational Modeling of Regional Dynamics of Pandemic Behavior using Psychologically Valid Agents

“…At the beginning of a pandemic, there is a rapid increase in Rt, followed by an asymmetric decline, followed by oscillations around Rt = 1. As noted previously, 7,8 this oscillation is similar to that produced by a Proportional-Integral-Derivative control system in which a controlling intervention (e.g., mask wearing) occurs in proportional response to the state of the system (e.g., Rt), although there may be lags between the awareness of the system state and the response, and between the response and effecting a change. The lags may occur (for instance) because of the pathogen incubation period, news time cycles, or the observation of local social conditions.…”

“…Advances in computational cognitive modeling, artificial intelligence, and machine learning provide the opportunity to build such models. 8,[22][23][24][25] In this article, we present models based on the development of Psychologically Valid Agents (PVAs) 22 that represent the behavior of regional populations in the U.S. over the pre-vaccination phase of COVID-19. We call these Regional Psychologically Valid Agents (R-PVAs).…”

The long‐term effectiveness and cost‐effectiveness of public health interventions; how can we model behavior? A review

“…There are three studies which attempt to model the internal mental processes which lead to a behavior (Buckley et al., 2022; Lopez et al., 2020; Pirolli et al., 2020). As described previously, Buckley et al.…”

“…Pirolli et al. (2020) use the Adaptive Control of Thought—Rational (ACT‐R) architecture which is a computational formulation of the inner workings of the brain and the Theory of Planned Behavior “to develop psychologically valid agents” for COVID‐19 infection reduction. The authors state that this enables interventions to be targeted at specific individuals or groups, which became particularly important during the coronavirus pandemic.…”

“…Only one of the included studies (Pirolli et al., 2020) used online media for model parameterization. Within this study, attitudes and beliefs toward the intervention (mask wearing) were parameterized based upon textual data from individuals' blogs, articles, tweets and Reddit posts.…”