A computationally efficient method for assessing the impact of an active viral cyber threat on a high-availability cluster

Altameem, Ahmed; Al-Ma’aitah, Mohammed; Kovtun, Viacheslav; Altameem, Torki

doi:10.1016/j.eij.2022.11.002

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 26 publications

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“…This circumstance suggests that the author's method may be appropriate for determining pessimistic scenarios when analyzing the reliability of critical systems in conditions of incomplete or distorted telemetry data. This direction can be developed taking into account the fact that the authors previously proposed a mathematical apparatus for describing the influence of complex negative factors on an information system for critical use based on the Markov processes theory [49][50][51] .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic forecasting of variable small data as a basis for analyzing an early stage of a cyber epidemic

Kovtun,

Grochla,

Kharchenko

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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Security Information and Event Management (SIEM) technologies play an important role in the architecture of modern cyber protection tools. One of the main scenarios for the use of SIEM is the detection of attacks on protected information infrastructure. Consorting that ISO 27001, NIST SP 800-61, and NIST SP 800-83 standards objectively do not keep up with the evolution of cyber threats, research aimed at forecasting the development of cyber epidemics is relevant. The article proposes a stochastic concept of describing variable small data on the Shannon entropy basis. The core of the concept is the description of small data by linear differential equations with stochastic characteristic parameters. The practical value of the proposed concept is embodied in the method of forecasting the development of a cyber epidemic at an early stage (in conditions of a lack of empirical information). In the context of the research object, the stochastic characteristic parameters of the model are the generation rate, the death rate, and the independent coefficient of variability of the measurement of the initial parameter of the research object. Analytical expressions for estimating the probability distribution densities of these characteristic parameters are proposed. It is assumed that these stochastic parameters of the model are imposed on the intervals, which allows for manipulation of the nature and type of the corresponding functions of the probability distribution densities. The task of finding optimal functions of the probability distribution densities of the characteristic parameters of the model with maximum entropy is formulated. The proposed method allows for generating sets of trajectories of values of characteristic parameters with optimal functions of the probability distribution densities. The example demonstrates both the flexibility and reliability of the proposed concept and method in comparison with the concepts of forecasting numerical series implemented in the base of Matlab functions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%