A computer model for the comparison of alternative foodstuffs shopping environments

Cole, Henry S.

doi:10.1016/0038-0121(72)90010-9

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 2 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In the case of the experiment with a `redeveloped' Watford town centre in all cases it appears that the small and medium centres progressively lose custom . The BRE model is most pessimistic about their future although this is because in the experiments conducted here, unlike the original work with the model (Cole, 1972), `topping up' shopping has not been treated separately from major foodstuffs shopping .…”

Section: Statisticmentioning

confidence: 84%

“…Finally we have the Building Research Establishment (BRE) model (Cole, 1972) . This ranks the choices available to shoppers for each convenience good in terms of a utility measurement Uijk based on attractiveness and the transport available .…”

Section: The Models Used In the Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We do not base this investigation on any specific existing proposal since we merely want to indicate the magnitude and nature of the impacts that might be felt . The estimates of attractiveness for both proposals are based on a study by Cole (1971) for Watford . Before presenting the estimates, one additional consideration, which is rarely taken into account when the models described here are used, must be introduced .…”

Section: The Use Of Different Estimation Statisticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

An Investigation into the Estimation and Reliability of Urban Shopping Models

Turner

Cole

1980

Urban Studies

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper evaluates the reliability of variants of five urban shopping models : Central Place theory, the Intervening Opportunities model, Gravity model, the Entropy model, and the Building Research Establishment (BRE) model . For each model variant parameters are estimated against data for four towns in the United Kingdom : Coventry, Derby, Watford and Telford, using alternative procedures for testing significance of the calibration . The models are then used to forecast hypothetical changes in local shopping environments, including dynamic effects, such as the progressive decline of local centres . On the basis of the results, some general conclusions are drawn as to the relative performance of the models and the factors determining their reliability in different forecasting situations.Mathematical models are used extensively in urban and regional planning to estimate traffic flows, housing demand and the likely impact of new shopping amenities . There is still, however, considerable controversy surrounding the use of models and great suspicion about the reliability of their results . Very rarely, in fact, have the forecasts made using these models been checked . In this paper we take shopping models as a typical example of the problems and possibilities with regard to the use of models in general .Other urban models (such as the traffic forecasting methodology of the Transport and Road Research Laboratory) and their predictions have been more thoroughly criticised (Gershuny, (1978) ; Turner, (1979, forthcoming) and comparisons of existing spatial interaction models made by Openshaw (1976) and Hathaway (1975)) . Comparisons of urban shopping models (e .g. Hodges and Kennett, 1973 ; Pankhurst and Roe, 1978) are referred to later . Models often conceal, in their wealth of technicalities, decisions that could substantially affect the results of using them (see, for example, Massey and Cordey Hayes, 1971) . In particular, the application of a given shopping model may lead in particular instances to quite arbitrary results . This of course has significant implications for any conclusions based R .on these models . The aim of the paper is to obtain an understanding of how reliable such models and the procedures for using them may be and how models trade off the interests of different social groups, as affected by planning decisions . Following this, we make suggestions about the use of models in planning . Although the discussion is for foodstuffs shopping models, the general arguments apply to other kinds of urban and regional models . We do not intend to consider the technical problems of building a model in any detail here . Rather, in the various stages of the construction and application of the models we shall indicate where uncertainty may arise, or judgments are made about the content of the model . These occur especially in the collection of data and their measurement, the choice of model, the form of the relationship used in a model, the procedure used to fit the data to the model (i .e . calibration) and t...

show abstract

Section: Statisticmentioning

confidence: 84%

Section: The Models Used In the Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Use Of Different Estimation Statisticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation