A Conceptual Framework for transition modelling

Abstract

This paper presents a Conceptual Framework (CF) for analysing and simulating transition dynamics (or radical systemic innovation) that is broadly consistent with both empirical evidence and current theorising about transitions. The framework distinguishes between a dominant socio-technical regime and a number of socio-technical niches. The central feature of the framework is to describe how niches and regime interact to produce a transition dynamic involving either a transformation or a total overthrow of the dominant regime. We base the analysis on reviews of patterns observed in historical transitions, and provide a framework for analysing the processes involved in producing future 'sustainability transitions'.

Seed for change : the making and implementation of seed policies in Ethiopia

“…"It refers to the semi-coherent set of rules that orient and coordinate the activities of the social groups that reproduce the various elements of socio-technical systems" (Geels 2011: p. 27). The regime is not only limited to the practice of serving the societal need but also extends to its structure and actors within it (Geels and Schot 2010;Haxeltine et al 2008). A niche is a flexible and fluid idea that emerges in the system and may have the potential to solve a societal problem.…”

“…Such processes also lead to a recognizable niche-regime constellation or empowered niche (de Haan and Rotmans 2011;Haxeltine et al 2008). However, when there is no pressure from the landscape, the regime "remains dynamically stable and will reproduce itself" (Geels and Schot 2007: p. 406).…”

Accelerating Transition Dynamics in City Regions: A Qualitative Modeling Perspective

“…The first is the transition model of [25][26][27][28] developed in the EU MATISSE project. In this agent-based model, societal change is perceived as an ongoing competition between a currently established regime, and emerging and competing niches, in response to landscape changes.…”

“…The conceptual framework of the Matisse model was dedicated to analyzing and simulating transition dynamics, while ensuring broad consistency with theoretical and empirical work [26]. After implementation, the model was applied among others to the analysis of personal (inland) transportation behavior in the UK [28].…”

Modelling societal transitions with agent transformation

“…Interactions like these are, in many cases, about the access to and allocation of resources, and are mediated by a system's structures, cultures, and practices. Details are reported in Haxeltine et al (2008).…”