A Conceptual Model of Investment-Risk Prediction in the Stock Market Using Extreme Value Theory with Machine Learning: A Semisystematic Literature Review

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has been an extraordinary event, the type of event that rarely occurs but that has major impacts on the stock market. The pandemic has created high volatility and caused extreme fluctuations in the stock market. The stock market can be characterized as either linear or nonlinear. One method that can detect extreme fluctuations is extreme value theory (EVT). This study employed a semisystematic literature review on the use of the EVT method to estimate investment risk in the stock market. The literature used was selected by applying the preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, sourced from the ScienceDirect.com, ProQuest, and Scopus databases. A bibliometric analysis was conducted to determine the study characteristics and identify any research gaps. The results of the analysis show that studies on this topic are rarely carried out. Research in this field is generally performed only in univariate cases and is very complicated in multivariate cases. Given these limitations, further research could focus on developing a conceptual model that is dynamic and sensitive to extreme fluctuations, with multivariable inputs, in order to predict investment risk. The model developed here considered the variables that affect stock price fluctuations as the input data. The combination of VaR–EVT and machine-learning methods is effective in increasing model accuracy because it combines linear and nonlinear models.

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