A Conditional Probability based Tsunami Prediction for the Pacific Ring of Fire

Abstract

<p>The Pacific Ring of Fire, stretching over 15 countries, is one of the earth's most Tsunami-prone regions. 80 Percent of the Tsunami Occurrences could be directly or indirectly associated with this region. This study deals with the development of Conditional Probability and Total Probability based approaches for estimating the probability of Tsunami Occurrence in the study area. This study suggests ten regions with a high probability of tsunami occurrence in the region. The prediction results are validated by computing the occurrence probabilities of the known tsunami events in the region. The study reveals that East Asian Countries like Japan, North and South Korea and Parts of China have a probability, more than 75 per cent, of experiencing a strong tsunami (Mw > 7.5) in the next three years from now. Also, certain South American countries like Peru, Chile and Ecuador, Southeast Asian Counties like Indonesia and South Pacific Countries like Papua New Guinea, Australia, and the Solomon Islands have a high probability of tsunami occurrence (90 Percent and above) in the next five years.  Based on this methodology, it has been possible to predict the Indonesian Tsunami of December 14th, 2021, with a probability of 83 Percent.</p>