A coordinated model for self‐scheduling and market participation of a large consumer in the face of a comprehensive set of uncertainties with incomplete Data

Abstract

In a restructured electricity market, a large consumer could supply its electricity consumption through its own available resources or purchasing from the electricity markets. Moreover, it could participate in demand response programs (DRPs) and also supply some portion of its demand from bilateral contracts. In this regard, the large consumer's objective is to minimize its own operation cost while facing several uncertainties that could affect its optimal decisions. The decision‐making problem becomes more difficult especially when the historical data is incomplete, or when the data is not available. This paper proposes an optimal decision‐making framework for a large consumer in the face of a comprehensive set of uncertain resources including electricity market price, internal electricity consumption, renewable power generation, and DR participation. To this end, a probabilistic‐possibilistic methodology is proposed to model the uncertainty of the electricity market prices in a more accurate way in comparison with existing approaches through the concept of Z‐number method. The uncertainty of internal electricity consumption is modelled by means of the seasonal ARIMA model, while the stochastic generation of its existing renewable resources are modelled through appropriate probability distribution functions. Moreover, the uncertainty of DRPs is considered by Markov chain. The large consumer also could sign bilateral contracts with generation companies to provide a portion of its required electricity demand. The simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the Z‐number methodology in comparison with other techniques for handling the uncertainties.