A coupled modeling framework for sustainable watershed management in transboundary river basins

Abstract

Abstract. There is a growing recognition among water resource managers that sustainable watershed management needs to not only account for the diverse ways humans benefit from the environment, but also incorporate the impact of human actions on the natural system. Coupled naturalhuman system modeling through explicit modeling of both natural and human behavior can help reveal the reciprocal interactions and co-evolution of the natural and human systems. This study develops a spatially scalable, generalized agent-based modeling (ABM) framework consisting of a process-based semi-distributed hydrologic model (SWAT) and a decentralized water system model to simulate the impacts of water resource management decisions that affect the food-water-energy-environment (FWEE) nexus at a watershed scale. Agents within a river basin are geographically delineated based on both political and watershed boundaries and represent key stakeholders of ecosystem services. Agents decide about the priority across three primary water uses: food production, hydropower generation and ecosystem health within their geographical domains. Agents interact with the environment (streamflow) through the SWAT model and interact with other agents through a parameter representing willingness to cooperate. The innovative twoway coupling between the water system model and SWAT enables this framework to fully explore the feedback of human decisions on the environmental dynamics and vice versa. To support non-technical stakeholder interactions, a web-based user interface has been developed that allows for role-play and participatory modeling. The generalized ABM framework is also tested in two key transboundary river basins, the Mekong River basin in Southeast Asia and the Niger River basin in West Africa, where water uses for ecosystem health compete with growing human demands on food and energy resources. We present modeling results for crop production, energy generation and violation of ecohydrological indicators at both the agent and basin-wide levels to shed light on holistic FWEE management policies in these two basins.

Growth of the Decision Tree: Advances in Bottom‐Up Climate Change Risk Management

“…They have also been shown to be effective at facilitating stakeholder‐driven modeling processes that help improve conceptualization of the water system, especially in transboundary river basins (Khan et al. ). Moreover, the development of coupled human‐hydrologic models has played a crucial role in the application of the DTF to evaluate the resilience of water system investments to climate, geophysical, and economic uncertainty (Ray et al.…”

“…Coupled human-hydrologic models have proven useful to address a variety of water management challenges related to infrastructure operation, demand management, river restoration, climate change, and the regional water-energy-food nexus (Tomsic et al 2007;Null et al 2014;Nelson et al 2016;Yang et al 2016;Wada et al 2017;Yang and Wi 2018). They have also been shown to be effective at facilitating stakeholder-driven modeling processes that help improve conceptualization of the water system, especially in transboundary river basins (Khan et al 2017). Moreover, the development of coupled humanhydrologic models has played a crucial role in the application of the DTF to evaluate the resilience of water system investments to climate, geophysical, and economic uncertainty (Ray et al 2015b(Ray et al , 2018.…”

Quantifying the Sustainability of Water Availability for the Water‐Food‐Energy‐Ecosystem Nexus in the Niger River Basin

“…ABM allows the incorporation of differing levels of cooperation among diverse decisionmakers in the basin. While similar studies have been undertaken in East Africa and South Asia (Khan et al, 2017;Yang et al, 2014Yang et al, , 2016Yang & Wi, 2018), to the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that incorporates water, food (irrigated crops), energy (hydropower), and environmental concerns into a single modeling framework and applies it to the entire Niger River Basin. It is also the first study that attempts to quantify the sustainability of water availability in a conceptually coherent way for trade-offs analysis (at basin-wide, national, and regional levels) to support investment decisions.…”

Agent-Based Modelling of a Coupled Water Demand and Supply System at the Catchment Scale

“…In a future version, Aqua.MORE could also be directly coupled with either classic rainfall-runoff models or with eco-hydrological models representing the interplay between vegetation and water. Literature already provides examples for ABM applications being coupled with hydrological models, e.g., with the 'Soil & Water Assessment Tool' (SWAT) [23,39,40].…”