The use of adhesively bonded joints in industrial structures requires reliable tools for the estimation of the failure load. The necessary and sufficient condition to predict the strength of such joints involves the implementation of a coupled stress and energetic criteria. However, its application necessitates the identification of the stress distribution along the adhesive layer, which has been approximated in this paper by a previously published closed‐form solution. This analysis along with finite element modelling results are compared with experimental data issued from a double‐notched sample tested with the Arcan fixture at various load ratios. The results show good agreement; the use of the closed‐form solution permitted to predict the failure load more rapidly and in a conservative manner compared with the experimental results. The application of the methodology is also extended to a wider range of joint geometries by means of spatial interpolation using the Kriging model.