A Critical Review of Risk Assessment Models for Listeria monocytogenes in Dairy Products

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Invasive listeriosis, due to its severe nature in susceptible populations, has been the focus of many quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models aiming to provide a valuable guide in future risk management efforts. A review of the published QRA models of Listeria monocytogenes in seafood was performed, with the objective of appraising the effectiveness of the control strategies at different points along the food chain. It is worth noting, however, that the outcomes of a QRA model are context-specific, and influenced by the country and target population, the assumptions that are employed, and the model architecture itself. Studies containing QRA models were retrieved through a literature search using properly connected keywords on Scopus and PubMed®. All 13 QRA models that were recovered were of short scope, covering, at most, the period from the end of processing to consumption; the majority (85%) focused on smoked or gravad fish. Since the modelled pathways commenced with the packaged product, none of the QRA models addressed cross-contamination events. Many models agreed that keeping the product’s temperature at 4.0–4.5 °C leads to greater reductions in the final risk of listeriosis than reducing the shelf life by one week and that the effectiveness of both measures can be surpassed by reducing the initial occurrence of L. monocytogenes in the product (at the end of processing). It is, therefore, necessary that future QRA models for RTE seafood contain a processing module that can provide insight into intervention strategies that can retard L. monocytogenes’ growth, such as the use of bacteriocins, ad hoc starter cultures and/or organic acids, and other strategies seeking to reduce cross-contamination at the facilities, such as stringent controls for sanitation procedures. Since risk estimates were shown to be moderately driven by growth kinetic parameters, namely, the exponential growth rate, the minimum temperature for growth, and the maximum population density, further work is needed to reduce uncertainties.

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Critical Review of Risk Assessment Models for Listeria monocytogenes in Seafood

Gonzales-Barron,

Cadavez,

De Oliveira Mota

et al. 2024

Self Cite

“…The searches in title, keywords and abstract were carried out using logically connected terms (("risk assessment" OR exposure OR quantitative microbial OR risk modelling OR modeling OR simulation* OR second-order OR "second order" OR "risk management") AND ("L. monocytogenes" OR "Listeria monocytogenes" OR listeriosis)) properly arranged in the syntaxes of the literature search engines. The full systematic review and information extraction processes are described in Gonzales-Barron et al [6]. QRA models conducted in any region of the world were included.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Critical Review of Risk Assessment Models for Listeria monocytogenes in Meat and Meat Products

Gonzales-Barron,

Cadavez,

De Oliveira Mota

et al. 2024

Self Cite

A review of the published quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models of L. monocytogenes in meat and meat products was performed, with the objective of appraising the intervention strategies deemed suitable for implementation along the food chain as well as their relative effectiveness. A systematic review retrieved 23 QRA models; most of them (87%) focused on ready-to-eat meat products and the majority (78%) also covered short supply chains (end processing/retail to consumption, or consumption only). The processing-to-table scope was the choice of models for processed meats such as chorizo, bulk-cooked meat, fermented sausage and dry-cured pork, in which the effects of processing were simulated. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the importance of obtaining accurate estimates for lag time, growth rate and maximum microbial density, in particular when affected by growth inhibitors and lactic acid bacteria. In the case of deli meats, QRA models showed that delicatessen meats sliced at retail were associated with a higher risk of listeriosis than manufacture pre-packed deli meats. Many models converged on the fact that (1) controlling cold storage temperature led to greater reductions in the final risk than decreasing the time to consumption and, furthermore, that (2) lower numbers and less prevalence of L. monocytogenes at the end of processing were far more effective than keeping low temperatures and/or short times during retail and/or home storage. Therefore, future listeriosis QRA models for meat products should encompass a processing module in order to assess the intervention strategies that lead to lower numbers and prevalence, such as the use of bio-preservation and novel technologies. Future models should be built upon accurate microbial kinetic parameters, and should realistically represent cross-contamination events along the food chain.

“…Various listeriosis quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models have been produced for RTE foods in general [10] in an attempt to assess the efficacy of current practices or potential strategies that retard or prevent the development of this pathogen. The objectives of this study are: (i) to accomplish a critical review of the published QRA models of listeriosis linked to RTE and non-RTE produce; (ii) to compare the relative effectiveness of the control measures or strategies evaluated in the various QRA models as simulated scenarios; and (iii) to elicit, thereof, recommendations for future QRA models in produce.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Critical Review of Risk Assessment Models for Listeria monocytogenes in Produce

Gonzales-Barron,

Cadavez,

De Oliveira Mota

et al. 2024

Self Cite

A review of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models of Listeria monocytogenes in produce was carried out, with the objective of appraising and contrasting the effectiveness of the control strategies placed along the food chains. Despite nine of the thirteen QRA models recovered being focused on fresh or RTE leafy greens, none of them represented important factors or sources of contamination in the primary production, such as the type of cultivation, water, fertilisers or irrigation method/practices. Cross-contamination at processing and during consumer’s handling was modelled using transfer rates, which were shown to moderately drive the final risk of listeriosis, therefore highlighting the importance of accurately representing the transfer coefficient parameters. Many QRA models coincided in the fact that temperature fluctuations at retail or temperature abuse at home were key factors contributing to increasing the risk of listeriosis. In addition to a primary module that could help assess current on-farm practices and potential control measures, future QRA models for minimally processed produce should also contain a refined sanitisation module able to estimate the effectiveness of various sanitisers as a function of type, concentration and exposure time. Finally, L. monocytogenes growth in the products down the supply chain should be estimated by using realistic time–temperature trajectories, and validated microbial kinetic parameters, both of them currently available in the literature.