A cross-cultural study of hindsight bias and conditional probabilistic reasoning

Abstract

In this fMRI study, we investigated Theory of Mind (ToM) in patients with paranoid schizophrenia. We hypothesized that the network supporting the representation of intentions is dysfunctional in patients with schizophrenia dependent on the type of intention involved. We used a paradigm including a control condition (physical causation) and three intention conditions (private intention, prospective social intention and communicative intentions) differing in the degree of social interaction. Patients showed significantly less activation in three regions typically activated in ToM tasks, i.e. paracingulate cortex and bilateral temporoparietal junctions. However, this dysfunction was dependent on the type of intention represented, i.e. was present only for social but not for non-social intentions. Moreover, part of the reduced activation was related to the fact that there was no signal drop in these regions for the physical causality condition as usually found in controls. This may be due to the tendency of schizophrenic patients to attribute intentionality to physical objects.

Explanations for cultural differences in thinking: Easterners’ dialectical thinking and Westerners’ linear thinking

“…In Easterners' dialectical thinking, the tendency to consider two contradictory possibilities was observed in a cross-cultural study on hindsight bias. Yama, Manktelow, Mercier, Van der Henst, Do, Kawasaki, and Adachi (2010) confirmed that hindsight bias was stronger among Easterners than Westerners (e.g., Choi & Nisbett, 2000) in a study with Japanese, Korean, British, and French participants. The Easterners were more inclined to think dialectically when they met a plausible outcome from a vignette and an unexpected outcome, while Westerners' judgment was less affected by the unexpected outcome.…”

Cultural Interpretations of Global Information? Hindsight Bias after Reading Wikipedia Articles across Cultures

“…Nevertheless, this was contrary to what we had expected. On the basis of the hypothesis from Choi and Nisbett (; see also Yama et al, ) that a holistic thinking style fosters hindsight bias, we had proposed that the same might hold for the effect of further reading biased materials. A more holistic thinking style was generally associated with greater perceptions of likelihood, inevitability, and foreseeability; however, it did not lead to pronounced effects of article version on readers' perceptions.…”

“…Previous studies (e.g. Choi & Nisbett, ; Yama et al, ) have often used nationality as a proxy for analytic versus holistic thinking style. Our research suggests, however, that holistic thinking does not necessarily go along with East Asian nationality, especially when answering questionnaires in English.…”

“…Taken together, these two aspects argue for a larger hindsight bias in holistic thinkers. Indeed, two studies found a larger hindsight bias in Asian cultures compared with Western cultures (Choi & Nisbett, ; Yama et al, ). However, there are also findings showing a smaller hindsight bias in Asian cultures (Heine & Lehman, ) and no cultural differences at all (Pohl, Bender, & Lachmann, ).…”

Hindsight bias in judgments of the predictability of flash floods: An experimental study for testimony at a court trial and legal decision making

“…Furthermore, we should point out the cultural differences in hindsight bias between Westerners and Easterners when considering such trial cases, because it has been shown that this bias is greater among Easterners than Westerners (Choi & Nisbett, 2000; Yama et al, 2010). Choi and Nisbett (2000) explain this cultural difference as that Easterners have more complex causal models for events than the Westerners do.…”