A decision framework to identify populations that are most vulnerable to the population level effects of disturbance

Wilson, Lindsay; Harwood, John; Booth, Cormac; Joy, Ruth; Harris, Catriona M.

doi:10.1111/csp2.149

Cited by 3 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 23 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…When assessing the risk associated with a proposed activity, it is essential to determine (i) if the population will be exposed, (ii) the proportion of the population exposed, (iii) the duration of individual exposure and (iv) the sensitivity of the exposed individuals [ 22 , 23 ]. The answers to these questions are influenced by the life-history traits of an individual or population, including their movement ecology, reproductive strategy, body size and pace of life.…”

Section: Life-history Traitsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Understanding a population's movement ecology can help determine the likelihood and duration of exposure and the proportion of the population exposed. Biologging devices and visual and acoustic survey methods provide valuable information on marine mammal movements [ 47 ] that can be incorporated into risk assessments to help identify which populations may be present in a disturbed area and thus require further assessment [ 22 ]. This information can also be used to plan activities that avoid areas with high concentrations of marine mammals.…”

Section: Life-history Traitsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the findings from these disparate models have yet to be synthesized in a single review to guide risk assessments for marine mammals. This information can help wildlife managers and practitioners identify and prioritize the populations most vulnerable to disturbance (see decision framework in [ 22 ]) and guide industry in planning activities that avoid or mitigate population-level effects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Emerging themes in Population Consequences of Disturbance models

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Assessing the non-lethal effects of disturbance from human activities is necessary for wildlife conservation and management. However, linking short-term responses to long-term impacts on individuals and populations is a significant hurdle for evaluating the risks of a proposed activity. The Population Consequences of Disturbance (PCoD) framework conceptually describes how disturbance can lead to changes in population dynamics, and its real-world application has led to a suite of quantitative models that can inform risk assessments. Here, we review PCoD models that forecast the possible consequences of a range of disturbance scenarios for marine mammals. In so doing, we identify common themes and highlight general principles to consider when assessing risk. We find that, when considered holistically, these models provide valuable insights into which contextual factors influence a population's degree of exposure and sensitivity to disturbance. We also discuss model assumptions and limitations, identify data gaps and suggest future research directions to enable PCoD models to better inform risk assessments and conservation and management decisions. The general principles explored can help wildlife managers and practitioners identify and prioritize the populations most vulnerable to disturbance and guide industry in planning activities that avoid or mitigate population-level effects.

show abstract

Section: Life-history Traitsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Life-history Traitsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Emerging themes in Population Consequences of Disturbance models

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Next, we assumed, conservatively, a disturbance duration that could be detrimental to the calf. To determine the most likely scenario to achieve this disturbance duration, we followed Wilson et al(2019; outlined in more detail in Supplementary Material). In brief, we estimated aggregate levels of disturbance by simulating individual exposure histories.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We then attempted to find a scenario that could cause lactating females with their calf to remain in the seismic survey zone, and be disturbed, for at least 48 h. ABMs are time consuming, complex and require a high amount of processing power. Therefore, we used a relatively simple approach to simulate individual exposure histories following computer code in Wilson et al (2019) Supplementary Material. This code generated predicted distributions of the number of hours of disturbance experienced by animals within a cohort, under a range of different transit times and response probability scenarios.…”

Section: Backwards Pcod Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Population-Level Effects of Anthropogenic Disturbance on a Marine Mammal Population

et al. 2021

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Population Consequences of Disturbance (PCoD) model is a conceptual framework used to assess the potential for population-level consequences following exposure of animals to a disturbance activity or stressor. This framework is a four-step process, progressing from changes in individual behavior and/or physiology, to changes in individual health, then vital rates, and finally to population-level effects. Despite its simplicity, there are few complete PCoD models available for any marine mammal species due to a lack of data available to parameterize many of the steps. Here, we present an application of the PCoD framework for migrating humpback whales exposed to a simulated commercial seismic survey scenario. We approached the framework in two ways; first, progressing sequentially forwards through the steps and basing our assessment on lactating females. This cohort was considered to be the most vulnerable in terms of energetic costs of disturbance, and most likely to influence any change in population growth due to future breeding success. Field measurements of behavioral responses of migrating humpback whales to seismic air guns from a previous study were used to parameterize an agent-based model (ABM). This ABM was used to estimate the probability of response, where a response was defined as a change in the migratory movement of female-calf pairs, and the duration of any resulting delay in migration. We then estimated the energetic consequences of any delay in migration for the lactating females and created population growth models with which to assess any population-level effects. The results of the forwards approach suggested a low potential for population consequences of seismic surveys on migrating humpbacks. Working backwards through the framework, we investigated “worst case” scenarios that could potentially lead to a population-level effect. Here, we started with increasing calf mortality and assumed that an exposure time greater than 48 h would increase mortality risk. We determined the most likely context in which this exposure would occur (resting area) and then tested this context within an ABM. This backwards approach illustrates how the PCoD model can be used to make management decisions regarding animal populations and exposure to anthropogenic stressors.

show abstract

The Use of Psychoacoustics in Marine Mammal Conservation in the United States: From Science to Management and Policy

Guan

Brookens

2021

JMSE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Underwater sound generated from human activities has been long recognized to cause adverse effects on marine mammals, ranging from auditory masking to behavioral disturbance to hearing impairment. In certain instances, underwater sound has led to physical injuries and mortalities. Research efforts to assess these impacts began approximately four decades ago with behavioral observations of large whales exposed to seismic surveys and rapidly progressed into the diverse field that today includes studies of behavioral, auditory, and physiological responses of marine mammals exposed to anthropogenic sound. Findings from those studies have informed the manner in which impact assessments have been and currently are conducted by regulatory agencies in the United States. They also have led to additional questions and identified information needed to understand more holistically the impacts of underwater sound, such as population- and species-level effects, long-term, chronic, and cumulative effects, and effects on taxa for which little or no information is known. Despite progress, the regulatory community has been slow to incorporate the best available science in marine mammal management and policy and often has relied on outdated and overly simplified methods in its impact assessments. To implement conservation measures effectively, regulatory agencies must be willing to adapt their regulatory scheme to ensure that the best available scientific information is incorporated accordingly.

show abstract

A decision framework to identify populations that are most vulnerable to the population level effects of disturbance

Cited by 3 publications

References 23 publications

Emerging themes in Population Consequences of Disturbance models

Emerging themes in Population Consequences of Disturbance models

Assessing Population-Level Effects of Anthropogenic Disturbance on a Marine Mammal Population

The Use of Psychoacoustics in Marine Mammal Conservation in the United States: From Science to Management and Policy

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About