A decision-making framework to model environmental flow requirements in oasis areas using Bayesian networks

Xue, Jie; GUI, Dongwei; Zhao, Ying; Lei, Jiaqiang; Zeng, Fanjiang; Feng, Xia; Mao, Donglei; Shareef, Muhammad

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.07.017

Cited by 40 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Oases are essential components of arid ecosystems that are extremely fragile and sensitive to 20 anthropogenic disturbance under scarce precipitation and water resources [Xie et al, 2015;Xue et al, 2016]. Oasis science, an important subject branch of arid area science, has recently focused on the following major issues: changes to oases under land use changes such as irrigated agriculture, the appropriate use and management of water, oasis bearing capacity, soil and land use, and biology and climate in oasis-desert ecotones [Li and Chao, 2015].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Should oasification be ignored when examining desertification in Northwest China?

GUI

Xue

Liu

et al. 2017

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Abstract. There has been substantial expansion of oases in the Northwest of China in recent decades; however, research has largely focused on desertification rather than oasification and its associated mechanisms. Based on the description of desertification in arid regions and other regions, and analysis of oasification in arid or hyper-arid areas, we firstly elucidate the theoretical relationship between oasification and desertification. We then examine the current 5 understanding in oasification research, and propose that this will enhance our understanding of desertification through the integration of studies of oasification. Finally, we suggest three potential topics for future oasification research. We also propose a simple conceptual model for the identification of an appropriate oasis size under different land uses, including the crucial assessment of associated uncertainties. Based on the analysis of oasification research from an 10 epistemological and methodological perspective, we suggest that oasification should have equal research status to desertification in arid regions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Should oasification be ignored when examining desertification in Northwest China?

GUI

Xue

Liu

et al. 2017

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“…BN models are based on different principles, stemming from a probabilistic graphical model that represents a set of random variables and their conditional independencies via a directed acyclic graph [21,22]. BN models have proven to be an efficient tool for different applications in hydrology, e.g., for probabilistic hydrological forecasting as an approach to quantify model uncertainty [22] and to support decision-making process in environmental applications [23].…”

Section: Data-driven Models For the Simulation Of Hydrological Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applicability of a Nu-Support Vector Regression Model for the Completion of Missing Data in Hydrological Time Series

Langhammer

Česák

2016

Water

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This paper analyzes the potential of a nu-support vector regression (nu-SVR) model for the reconstruction of missing data of hydrological time series from a sensor network. Sensor networks are currently experiencing rapid growth of applications in experimental research and monitoring and provide an opportunity to study the dynamics of hydrological processes in previously ungauged or remote areas. Due to physical vulnerability or limited maintenance, networks are prone to data outages, which can devaluate the unique data sources. This paper analyzes the potential of a nu-SVR model to simulate water levels in a network of sensors in four nested experimental catchments in a mid-latitude montane environment. The model was applied to a range of typical runoff situations, including a single event storm, multi-peak flood event, snowmelt, rain on snow and a low flow period. The simulations based on daily values proved the high efficiency of the nu-SVR modeling approach to simulate the hydrological processes in a network of monitoring stations. The model proved its ability to reliably reconstruct and simulate typical runoff situations, including complex events, such as rain on snow or flooding from recurrent regional rain. The worst model performance was observed at low flow periods and for single peak flows, especially in the high-altitude catchments.

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“…The Qira oasis can be divided into agricultural and natural oasis ecosystems (Xue et al, 2016a;Xue et al, 2016b). The agricultural oasis ecosystem is essential for food production and human welfare, while the natural oasis ecosystem provides crucial ecosystem services for human survival and settlement, such as desert vegetation acting as a natural barrier to maintain biodiversity, to 15 protect agriculture, and to combat desertification and sandstorms.…”

Section: Study Area and Iwrm Issuementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Qira oasis area, the natural oasis ecosystem has been facing pressure due to water shortage. Many serious issues have emerged, including the destruction of the aquatic environment, the degradation of riparian forests and desert shrub-/grasslands, the deterioration of groundwater quality, and the decline of the groundwater table for maintaining the health of desert vegetation (Xue et al, 2016b). Conversely, retaining a large amount of water for use by the natural oasis 30 ecosystem can lead to a reduction in agricultural irrigation.…”

Section: Study Area and Iwrm Issuementioning

confidence: 99%

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Development of a participatory Bayesian network model for integrating ecosystem services into catchment-scale water resources management

Xue

GUI

Lei

et al. 2016

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Abstract. This paper proposes an ecosystem services-based integrated water resource management (IWRM) framework within which a participatory Bayesian network (BN) model that 15assists with the integration of IWRM is developed. The framework is divided three steps: (1) identifying water-related services of ecosystems; (2) analysis of the tradeoffs and synergy among users of water; and (3) ecosystem services-based IWRM implementation using the BN model. We present the development, evaluation and application of a participatory BN model with the involvement of four participant groups (stakeholders, water manager, water management experts, 20 and research team) in Qira oasis area, Northwest China. As a typical catchment-scale region, the Qira oasis area is facing severe water competition between the demands of human activities and natural ecosystems. We demonstrate that the BN model developed provides effective integration of ecosystem services into a quantitative IWMR framework via public negotiation and feedback. The network results, sensitivity evaluation, and management scenarios are broadly accepted by the 25 participant groups. The intervention scenarios from the model conclude that any water management measure remains unable to sustain the ecosystem health in water-related ecosystem services. Greater cooperation among the stakeholders is highly necessary for dealing with such water conflicts. In particular, a proportion of the agricultural water saved through improving water-use efficiency should be transferred to natural ecosystems via water trade. The BN model 30 developed is appropriate for areas throughout the world in which there is intense competition for water between human activities and ecosystems -particularly in arid regions.

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A decision-making framework to model environmental flow requirements in oasis areas using Bayesian networks

Cited by 40 publications

References 38 publications

Should oasification be ignored when examining desertification in Northwest China?

Should oasification be ignored when examining desertification in Northwest China?

Applicability of a Nu-Support Vector Regression Model for the Completion of Missing Data in Hydrological Time Series

Development of a participatory Bayesian network model for integrating ecosystem services into catchment-scale water resources management

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