A Decision Support Tool for Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Multiple Ecosystem Services

Cristal, Irina; Améztegui, Aitor; García-Gonzalo, Jordi

doi:10.3390/f10050440

Cited by 21 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Also, the interactivity offers attractive possibilities for engagement, awareness building, and reaching the viewer's emotions (Sheppard 2005), meanwhile providing an impactful platform for learning complex Systems Thinking contexts around sustainability (Smithwick et al 2018). Another successful employment of interactive visualized methods in forest management can be found in the works of Cristal et al (2019), Smith et al (2012), which agree with our findings on the efficacy of these tools. Some of the participants' comments on how the dynamic Fig.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Integrating Menominee model for sustainable forestry with Systems Thinking competency through 3D virtual tours

Nasr-Azadani,

Smithwick,

Steidle

et al. 2023

Sustain Sci

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Sustainability competencies enable planners, the public, local communities, academics, and development practitioners to address environmental challenges, better envision the future and devise practical solutions. A key competency in this framework is Systems Thinking, allowing individuals to think comprehensively at different temporal and spatial scales. Among all interested groups, local and Indigenous communities play a significant role in preserving the sustainability of the natural environment and co-producing knowledge based on traditional ecological knowledge. Hence, new approaches are needed to integrate traditional ecological values into competency-based practices to articulate problems and related solutions. This project introduces place-based scenarios rooted in conventional forest management concerning two identified subsets of Bloom’s Taxonomy, Remembering and Understanding, including some competencies necessary for thinking systemically. Overall, 57 participants, including students and staff of the College of Menominee Nation and Menominee community members, in northeast Wisconsin, USA, randomly experienced two visual tools with the same information presented as either: a website with simple 2D images or a 3D virtual tour to investigate which visualization method can help better articulate systems, their components, and behaviors. Participants answered two kinds of questionnaires based on either cognitive mapping or reflection on place-based scenarios. The results show that 3D virtual tour users better demonstrated proficiency in Remembering and Understanding compared to users who experienced the 2D website. Our results thus highlight the potential for 3D virtual experiences to enable sustainability competencies. However, given the observed differences among age and educational groups, future visualization tools and associated research methods should attend to audiences’ competencies, preferences, and comfort, especially among older age groups.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Integrating Menominee model for sustainable forestry with Systems Thinking competency through 3D virtual tours

Nasr-Azadani,

Smithwick,

Steidle

et al. 2023

Sustain Sci

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“…However, the simulation model of this study concentrates on the logistics of the wood supply chain and thus connects the initial harvesting and final industry consumption of those studies [22][23][24]. Furthermore, impacts of climate change and risks were simulated on a higher abstraction level with other methods for upstream processes such as primal tree planting, forest stand growths, and forest management, but the studies did not focus on supply chain management and wood logistic [25][26][27][28]. Others simulated wood supply chains and pointed out the resulting outcomes of risks such as raw material availability and quality [19], quality loss during storage [29], and oversupply [13,14], but did not focus on concrete contingency strategies and plans to give operative decision support to manage those risks.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contingency Plans for the Wood Supply Chain Based on Bottleneck and Queuing Time Analyses of a Discrete Event Simulation

Kögler

Rauch

2020

Forests

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Wood supply chain performance suffers from risks intensified by more frequent and extreme natural calamities such as windstorms, bark beetle infestations, and ice-break treetops. In order to limit further damage and wood value loss after natural calamities, high volumes of salvage wood have to be rapidly transported out of the forest. In these cases, robust decision support and coordinated management strategies based on advanced contingency planning are needed. Consequently, this study introduces a contingency planning toolbox consisting of a discrete event simulation model setup for analyses on an operational level, strategies to cope with challenging business cases, as well as transport templates to analyze outcomes of decisions before real, costly, and long-lasting changes are made. The toolbox enables wood supply managers to develop contingency plans to prepare for increasing risk events and more frequent natural disturbances due to climate change. Crucial key performance indicators including truck to wagon ratios, truck and wagon utilization, worktime coordination, truck queuing times, terminal transhipment volume, and required stockyard are presented for varying delivery time, transport tonnage, and train pick-up scenarios. The strategy BEST FIT was proven to provide robust solutions which saves truck and train resources, as well as keeps transhipment volume on a high level and stockyard and queuing time on a low level. Permission granted for increased truck transport tonnages was evaluated as a potential means to reduce truck trips, if working times and train pick-ups are coordinated. Furthermore, the practical applicability for contingency planning is demonstrated by highly relevant business cases such as limited wagon or truck availability, defined delivery quota, terminal selection, queuing time reduction, or scheduled stock accumulation. Further research should focus on the modeling and management of log quality deterioration and the resulting wood value loss caused by challenging transport and storage conditions.

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“…Process-based models (PBMs) can therefore be helpful to fill this gap. PBMs serve as the framework of physiological principles and mechanisms (Johnsen et al 2001;Fontes et al 2010;Seely et al 2015;Cristal et al 2019), and can extrapolate growth across the landscape, by remote sensing and geographic information systems (RS & GIS) (Tickle et al 2001). Coupling PBMs and global climate models (GCMs) is a pre-eminent approach to determining climate change impacts on forest growth and C dynamics (Almeida et al 2009;Battaglia et al 2009;Pinkard et al 2010;Seely et al 2015;Elli et al 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the growth response to climate change and management of Tectona grandis L. f. using the 3-PGmix model

Gupta

Sharma

2021

Annals of Forest Science

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Key message Teak (Tectona grandis L. f.) is a native tree species of India. It is one of the most desirable timber species because of its strength, fine texture, and durability. Its growth is strongly dependent on the climatic conditions, but empirical data are often unavailable to support management decisions. The physiological principles for predicting growth incorporated in the 3-PGmix model make it a useful tool in modelling the growth responses and management in the changing climate. We assessed that under elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration and no thinning, teak would store more carbon than currently. Context Uncertainty and lack of scientific understanding about the growth response to climate change and thinning regimes have created challenges in teak sustainability, both regionally and globally. Aims This research examines climate change and management implications on teak growth in India using the 3-PGmix model. Methods The 3-PGmix model was coupled with climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5) to forecast growth response up to the year 2100 with 1981-2010 as the baseline under thinning (G-quality, P-quality) regimes. Thinning under G-quality is performed at earlier stand age than P-quality, and then simulations under 'no thinning' based on stocking/ha at different thinning intensity. Results Under 'no thinning', predicted net primary productivity (NPP) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 became 5.77 t/ha/year and 5.28 t/ha/year in 2100. However, under increasing CO 2 , it became 7.39 t/ha/year and 8.22 t/ha/year respectively in 2100. In the future, increasing CO2 would be the dominating factor for an increase in teak growth; however, abnormal precipitation and warmer temperature could produce an unforeseen growth condition. The carbon stock and CO 2 sequestration are predicted to be higher under no thinning, which signifies the CO 2 fertilisation effect in teak. ConclusionThe set of parameters used in 3-PGmix offers an opportunity to predict teak responses to future climatic conditions and management treatments.

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A Decision Support Tool for Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Multiple Ecosystem Services

Cited by 21 publications

References 46 publications

Integrating Menominee model for sustainable forestry with Systems Thinking competency through 3D virtual tours

Integrating Menominee model for sustainable forestry with Systems Thinking competency through 3D virtual tours

Contingency Plans for the Wood Supply Chain Based on Bottleneck and Queuing Time Analyses of a Discrete Event Simulation

Modelling the growth response to climate change and management of Tectona grandis L. f. using the 3-PGmix model

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