A decomposition method based on a model of continuous change

Horiuchi, Shiro; Wilmoth, John R.; Pletcher, Scott D.

doi:10.1353/dem.0.0033

Cited by 118 publications

(97 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…It applies to any demographic statistic for which the sensitivity to the underlying vital rates can be calculated. The version used here is closely related to the decomposition method independently derived and described by Horiuchi, Wilmoth and Pletcher (2008).…”

Section: Decomposition Of Temporal Trends In Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Perturbation Analysis of Indices of Lifespan Variability

2013

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A number of indices exist to calculate lifespan variation, each with different underlying properties. Here we present new formulae for the response of seven of these indices to changes in the underlying mortality schedule (life disparity, the Gini coefficient, the standard deviation, the variance, Theil's index, the mean logarithmic deviation, and the inter-quartile range). We derive each of these indices from an absorbing Markov chain formulation of the life table, and use matrix calculus to obtain the sensitivity and the elasticity (i.e., the proportional sensitivity) to changes in age-specific mortality. Using empirical French and Russian male data we compare the underlying sensitivities to mortality change under different mortality regimes in order to test under which conditions the indices might differ in their conclusions about the magnitude of lifespan variation. Finally, we demonstrate how the sensitivities can be used to decompose temporal changes in the indices into contributions of age-specific mortality changes. The result is an easily computable method for calculating the properties of this important class of longevity indices.

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Section: Decomposition Of Temporal Trends In Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Perturbation Analysis of Indices of Lifespan Variability

2013

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“…Although other methods have been proposed to decompose effects of different factors on indicators of interest, Shapley value decomposition, to our knowledge, is most suitable in our application. 86,87 …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

et al. 2014

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Summary Background Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. Methods We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0–6 days), late neonatal (7–28 days), postneonatal (29–364 days), childhood (1–4 years), and under-5 (0–4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. Findings We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0–6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1–18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6–177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8–2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from −6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000–13 than during 1990–2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only −1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. Interpretation Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 20...

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“…Unlike life expectancy at birth, modal age at death is substantially affected by mortality of adults and therefore it reacts more sensitive to changes that occur among older aged population (Horiuchi 2008;Kannisto, 2001). In countries with low mortality rates, where most of the deaths are recorded in old age, the indicator modal age at death becomes primary for monitoring the changes in the age-at-death distribution (Ouellette, Bourbeau, 2011).…”

Section: An Outline Of the Problem Of The Czech Republicmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Ageing of the Population in Developed Countries – the Economic Consequences in the Czech Republic

Arltová¹,

Smrčka²,

Vrabcová³

et al. 2016

Economics &Amp; Sociology

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ABSTRACT. The ageing of the population is considered to be a cultural and social problem of developed countries. This is not, however, only a demographic problem, as it reaches into the functioning of the entire state economy, especially in the area of expected decline in numbers of people of productive age and employment connected with it, the increase in numbers of inhabitants of retirement age and pension reforms connected therewith and, for instance, healthcare costs. The period of retirement is gradually extending, but it also leads to increase of life expectancy and time lived without significant health restrictions. The problems of ageing will probably first appear in countries with a high proportion of industry and construction in the GDP. Economies with a high proportion of services will be affected to a lesser degree. The Czech Republic is a classic example of a country based on industry and construction. It is therefore probable that it will face an unsolvable problem in the near future, as the nature of its economy will be at variance with its demographic structure. It raises a question of this problem can be solved by supporting immigration.

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A decomposition method based on a model of continuous change

Cited by 118 publications

References 18 publications

Perturbation Analysis of Indices of Lifespan Variability

Perturbation Analysis of Indices of Lifespan Variability

Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

The Ageing of the Population in Developed Countries – the Economic Consequences in the Czech Republic

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