[1] The annual cycle climatology of cloud amount, cloud-top pressure, and optical thickness in two generations of climate models is compared to satellite observations to identify changes over time in the fidelity of simulated clouds. In more recent models, there is widespread reduction of a bias associated with too many highly reflective clouds, with the best models having eliminated this bias. With increased amounts of clouds with lesser reflectivity, the compensating errors that permit models to simulate the time-mean radiation balance have been reduced. Errors in cloud amount as a function of height or climate regime on average show little or no improvement, although greater improvement can be found in individual models.
Measuring Changes in the Simulations of Global Cloudiness Over Time[2] The simulation of clouds by climate models is a key ongoing challenge in the numerical representation of Earth's climate. Due to their large impact on Earth's radiation budget, clouds are important for determining aspects of current climate, such as surface air temperatures in many regions [Ma et al., 1996;Curry et al., 1996], the strength and variability of atmospheric circulations [Slingo and Slingo, 1988], and the magnitude of climate changes that result from perturbations in the chemical composition of the atmosphere [IPCC, 2007]. While important, the modeling of clouds is very difficult because most cloud processes happen at scales far smaller than can be resolved by climate models, and thus, their bulk effects must be represented with imperfect parameterizations.[3] Given the efforts of many scientists over several decades to understand cloud processes and improve their representation in models, it is important to ask are climate model simulations of clouds improving and, if so, by how much? Here, we analyze the ability of two generations of climate models to simulate the climatological distribution of clouds and judge fidelity by comparison to several decades of satellite observations. Because of the significant differences between the ways clouds are observed and the ways they are represented in models, we use a "satellite simulator" to increase the chances that differences between the models and observations represent actual model deficiencies. We find that significant progress in the ability of models to simulate clouds has occurred over the last decade, particularly in reducing the over-prediction of highly reflective clouds [Zhang et al., 2005].