A Detailed Overview and Consistent Classification of Climate-Economy Models

Νίκας, Αλέξανδρος; Doukas, Haris; Papandreou, Andreas

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-03152-7_1

Cited by 60 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 187 publications

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“…These typically allow for a relatively granular specification of the economy (in comparison to most macroeconometric models) and can be used to assess the impact of a specific policy (NGFS, 2020). By modelling the linkages between the different sectors of an economy, CGE models can capture not only the direct impacts of a policy on one sector of the economy but trace its full (or general equilibrium) impact on the interdependent sectors of that economy and ultimately the impact on consumption (Nikas et al, 2019). They can also take into account trade relationships between countries and allow for an analysis of inward and outward spillovers, for example in terms of potential carbon leakage effects and carbon border adjustments (Molico, 2019).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-Related Stress Testing

Grippa¹,

Mann²

2020

IMF Working Papers

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This paper explores three possible transmission channels for transition risk shocks to the financial system in Norway. First, we estimate the direct firm-level impact of a substantial increase in domestic carbon prices under severe assumptions. Second, we map the impact of a drastic increase in global carbon prices on the domestic economy via the Norwegian oil sector. Third, we model the impact of a forced reduction in Norwegian oil firms’ output on shareholder portfolios. Results show that such a sharp increase in carbon prices would have a significant but manageable impact on banks. Finally, the paper discusses ways to advance the still evolving field of transition risk stress testing.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-Related Stress Testing

Grippa¹,

Mann²

2020

IMF Working Papers

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“…Science in support of developing mitigation pathways—heavily underpinned by energy system, sectoral and integrated assessment models (IAMs)—attempts to assess interactions within the spectrum of highly intertwined pillars of technology, economy, environment, policy and society [3] . Whatever the theory, structure and coverage of these tools [4] , modelling practice tends to focus predominantly on the supply-side action space [5] , despite most well-below-2 °C-compatible mitigation scenarios describing transformations in both energy supply and demand.…”

Section: Acknowledging the Problemmentioning

confidence: 99%

The desirability of transitions in demand: Incorporating behavioural and societal transformations into energy modelling

Νίκας

Lieu

Şorman

et al. 2020

Energy Research & Social Science

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Quantitative systems modelling in support of climate policy has tended to focus more on the supply side in assessing interactions among technology, economy, environment, policy and society. By contrast, the demand side is usually underrepresented, often emphasising technological options for energy efficiency improvements. In this perspective, we argue that scientific support to climate action is not only about exploring capacity of “what”, in terms of policy and outcome, but also about assessing feasibility and desirability, in terms of “when”, “where” and especially for “whom”. Without the necessary behavioural and societal transformations, the world faces an inadequate response to the climate crisis challenge. This could result from poor uptake of low-carbon technologies, continued high-carbon intensive lifestyles, or economy-wide rebound effects. For this reason, we propose a framing for a holistic and transdisciplinary perspective on the role of human choices and behaviours in influencing the low-carbon transition, starting from the desires of individuals and communities, and analysing how these interact with the energy and economic landscape, leading to systemic change at the macro-level. In making a case for a political ecology agenda, we expand our scope, from comprehending the role of societal acceptance and uptake of end-use technologies, to co-developing knowledge with citizens from non-mainstream and marginalised communities, and to defining the modelling requirements to assess the decarbonisation potential of shifting lifestyle patterns in climate change and action.

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“…Based on a comprehensive review by Kluschke et al [6], we divide these studies by their applied method into three categories: simulations, optimization, and accounting. Simulation models are trying to capture technology and economic interaction as realistically as possible, as opposed to optimization models that aims to find an optimal cost solution [261]. It is worthwhile to mention that simulation models are not necessarily capture the "non-financial" drivers for drivetrain adoption.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing alternative heavy-duty drivetrains based on GHG emissions, ownership and abatement costs: Simulations of freight routes in British Columbia

Lajevardi

Axsen

Crawford

2019

Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment

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Heavy-duty trucks (HDTs) are vital in delivering products to the consumers around the world and help maintain the quality of life. However, they are heavily depending on fossil diesel use, which causing global climate change as well as local air pollutions. Although they represent a small percentage of vehicle population, they emit more than 30% of GHGs in road transportation or 5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Furthermore, GHG emissions from this sector are expected to steadily grow due to economic growth, globalization, industrialization, online shopping, and fast delivery expectations. This study was focused on the Canadian province of British Columbia (BC) as a case study where HDTs are responsible for more than 4% of total provincial GHGs. BC, along with many regions around the world, has been committed to reduce its GHG emissions by 80% below 2007 levels by 2050. The goal of this study was to evaluate the potential of meeting this objective for BC HDTs using alternative drivetrain technologies. First, a component-level model was developed in Matlab to compute on-road energy consumption and CO2 emissions of compressed natural gas and diesel HDTs based on their physical parameters (e.g. mass) over several selected drive cycles. Results of the first contribution indicated a compressed natural gas (CNG) drivetrain emits 13-15% fewer GHG than a comparable diesel. Road grades of several main BC routes were included in the drive cycle simulations, which is an important factor that can increase the fuel consumption and CO2 emission by as much as 24% relative to a flat route assumption. In the second contribution, the physical energy consumption model was extended to compare 16 diverse drivetrain technologies, including a pure battery electric. The comparison metrics were also extended to well-to-wheel GHG emissions, total ownership costs (TOC) (including infrastructure), and abatement costs (based on incremental TOC cost over GHG emissions reduction), and cargo capacity impacts. The 16 considered drivetrains were distinguished by their fuel types, combustion technology, drivetrain architecture, and connection to the electricity grid (e.g. catenary vs fast charging stations). Next, the activity data of 1,616 HDTs operating in BC with sparse recording intervals was used to select 6 representative freight routes with different ranges of 120-950 km split into short and long haul routes. A combination of filtering and interpolation techniques was used to develop 1-Hz drive cycles compatible with the level of plug-in hybrid adoption. It was found infrastructure density increases the probability of meeting the 2050 target on both short and long haul HDTs. However, the increase in the probability is much higher for the short haul segment. Among various infrastructure roll-out scenarios, rapid deployment of hydrogen fueling stations was found to have the highest positive impact on GHG emissions reduction for both short and long haul markets. Both battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell drivetrains can succeed in...

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A Detailed Overview and Consistent Classification of Climate-Economy Models

Cited by 60 publications

References 187 publications

Climate-Related Stress Testing

Climate-Related Stress Testing

The desirability of transitions in demand: Incorporating behavioural and societal transformations into energy modelling

Comparing alternative heavy-duty drivetrains based on GHG emissions, ownership and abatement costs: Simulations of freight routes in British Columbia

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