A Difference-in-Differences Approach to Assess the Effect of a Heat Action Plan on Heat-Related Mortality, and Differences in Effectiveness According to Sex, Age, and Socioeconomic Status (Montreal, Quebec)

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Bailey, Zinzi; Kaiser, David; Auger, Nathalie; King, Nicholas B.; Kaufman, Jay S.

doi:10.1289/ehp203

Cited by 105 publications

(75 citation statements)

References 51 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Some studies suggest that the effects of extreme temperatures can be reduced when preventive measures are implemented [39][40][41]. According to a study in Spain [40], provinces that implemented more actions from their Heat Health Prevention Plan showed stronger decreases in mortality attributable to extreme heat.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach

Rodrigues

Santana

2019

Atmosphere

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change is now widely recognised as the greatest global threat over the coming decades. This study aimed to quantify and project the effects of climate change on future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases (CSD) in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and in Porto metropolitan area (PMA). The future time slices of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), mid-term (2046–2065) and long-term (2080–2099) were compared with the reference period (1986–2005). There is a significant decreasing trend in proportion to the overall extreme cold temperature-attributable mortality due to CSD in the future periods (2045–2065 and 2081–2099) in LMA, −0.63% and −0.73%, respectively, and in PMA, −0.62% for 2045–2065 and −0.69% for 2081–2099, compared to the historical period. The fraction attributable to extreme hot temperature in the summer months increased by 0.08% and 0.23%, from 0.04% in the historical period to 0.11% during 2046–2065, and to 0.27% during 2081–2099 in LMA. While there were no noticeable changes due to extreme hot temperature during the summer in PMA, significant increases were observed with warmer winter temperatures: 1.27% and 2.80%. The projections of future temperature-attributable mortality may provide valuable information to support climate policy decision making and temperature-related risk management.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach

Rodrigues

Santana

2019

Atmosphere

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…For example, in Montreal, the 2004 implementation of a heat action plan that included a warning component was associated with a decrease in mortality, especially among the elderly (Benmarhnia et al 2016). The implementation of heat warning systems may have also played a role in reducing mortality in other locations, including France (Fouillet et al 2008) and the United States (Weisskopf et al 2002).…”

Section: ) Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected temperature-related deaths in ten large U.S. metropolitan areas under different climate change scenarios

Weinberger

Haykin

Eliot

et al. 2017

Environment International

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background There is an established U-shaped association between daily temperature and mortality. Temperature changes projected through the end of century are expected to lead to higher rates of heat-related mortality but also lower rates of cold-related mortality, such that the net change in temperature-related mortality will depend on location. Objectives We quantified the change in heat-, cold-, and temperature-related mortality rates through the end of the century across 10 large US metropolitan areas. Methods We applied location-specific projections of future temperature from over 40 downscaled climate models to exposure-response functions relating daily temperature and mortality in 10 US metropolitan areas to estimate the change in temperature-related mortality rates in 2045–2055 and 2085–2095 compared to 1992–2002, under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). We further calculated the total number of deaths attributable to temperature in 1997, 2050, and 2090 in each metropolitan area, either assuming constant population or accounting for projected population growth. Results In each of the 10 metropolitan areas, projected future temperatures were associated with lower rates of cold-related deaths and higher rates of heat-related deaths. Under the higher-emission RCP 8.5 scenario, 8 of the 10 metropolitan areas are projected to experience a net increase in annual temperature-related deaths per million people by 2086–2095, ranging from a net increase of 627 (95% empirical confidence intervals [eCI]: 239, 1018) deaths per million in Los Angeles to a net decrease of 59 (95% eCI: −485, 314) deaths per million in Boston. Applying these projected temperature-related mortality rates to projected population size underscores the large public health burden of temperature. Conclusions Increases in the heat-related death rate are projected to outweigh decreases in the cold-related death rate in 8 out of 10 cities studied under a high emissions scenario. Adhering to a lower emission scenario has the potential to substantially reduce future temperature-related mortality.

show abstract

“…In California, the forecasting system has been recently updated to include extreme heat wave events; the National Weather Service experimental Health Risk is used as an early warning system to identify potential heat risks, which provides guidance to decision makers to take action (NWS 2019). In some cities, local heat action plans have been shown to be successful at reducing health impacts of heat (Benmarhnia et al 2016). The results of our study should be used to inform a specific heat action plan that activates interventions during an extreme heat event to decrease their impacts, even in the fall, winter and spring.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 87%

The health burden of fall, winter and spring extreme heat events in Southern California and contribution of Santa Ana Winds

Schwarz

Malig

Guzman‐Morales

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: Extreme heat is associated with increased morbidity but most studies examine this relationship in warm seasons. In Southern California, Santa Ana winds (SAWs) are associated with high temperatures during the fall, winter and spring, especially in the coastal region. Objectives: Our aim was to examine the relationship between hospitalizations and extreme heat events in the fall, winter and spring, and explore the potential interaction with SAWs. Methods: Hospitalizations from 1999-2012 were obtained from the Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development Patient Discharge Data. A time-stratified case crossover design was employed to investigate the association between off-season heat and hospitalizations for various diagnoses. We examined the additive interaction of SAWs and extreme heat events on hospitalizations. Results: Over 1.5 million hospitalizations occurred in the Southern California coastal region during non-summer seasons. The 99th percentile-based thresholds that we used to define extreme heat events varied from a maximum temperature of 22.8 • C to 35.1 • C. In the fall and spring, risk of hospitalization increased for dehydration (OR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.45 and OR: 1.47 95% CI: 1.25, 1.71, respectively) and acute renal failure (OR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.15, 1.58 and OR: 1.39, 95% CI: 1.19, 1.63, respectively) during 1-day extreme heat events. We also found an association between 1-day extreme heat events and hospitalization for ischemic stroke, with the highest risk observed in December. The results indicate that SAWs correspond to extreme heat events, particularly in the winter. Finally, we found no additive interaction with SAWs. Discussion: Results suggest that relatively high temperatures in non-summer months are associated with health burdens for several hospitalization outcomes. Heat action plans should consider decreasing the health burden of extreme heat events year-round.

show abstract

A Difference-in-Differences Approach to Assess the Effect of a Heat Action Plan on Heat-Related Mortality, and Differences in Effectiveness According to Sex, Age, and Socioeconomic Status (Montreal, Quebec)

Cited by 105 publications

References 51 publications

Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach

Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach

Projected temperature-related deaths in ten large U.S. metropolitan areas under different climate change scenarios

The health burden of fall, winter and spring extreme heat events in Southern California and contribution of Santa Ana Winds

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About