A discrete-continuous stochastic model functioning of analysis system, generalization and implementation of experience in the use of troops (armed forces)

Abstract

In article presented theoretic generalization practical efficiency issues training and deployment of troops (armed forces) by improving the analysis system, generalization and implementation of combat experience (ASGIE) and an actual scientific problem was solved in a new way, consisting in the improvement of the scientific and methodological apparatus of its functioning. Performed analysis mathematical models for descriptions and assessment functioning system of training and use of troops (armed forces). In the same time, the results of researches in exercises and other activities of operational, combat training and daily activities of troops (armed forces) showed the absence of effective mathematical models for the functioning of ASGIE of troops (armed forces). The constituents for each of the three performance indicators have been substantiated and determined, which reproduce the corresponding reactions of the ASGIE to obtain a generalized experience. The connection of these constituents with the requirements for the mathematical model of the reaction of the ASGIE is shown. A discrete-continuous stochastic model of the ASGIE reaction has been developed to study the effectiveness of a promising ASGIE for various options for its implementation. A system of Kolmogorov-Chapman differential equations of the first order has been formed, the solution of which gives the opportunity to get the value of performance indicators ASGIE. Calculations performed for ASGI which includes the governing bodies of three military units and three OC with decision-making on the generalization of experience for the majority principle "2 with 3" show: acceptable values of the performance indicator "Experience is generalized" are achieved when the values of the probability of identifying experience and the probability of successful generalization of experience by the management body are greater than 0.9; with the values of the probability of experience identification and the probability of successful generalization of experience by the governing bodies in the range from 0.4 to 0.7 with a probability of not less than 0.7, it will be necessary to continue to accumulate generalized experience in order to make a decision on its dissemination; accordingly, a value in the range from 0.2 to 0.6 is unacceptable for organizing the process of generalizing experience for the developed ASGI.