A Dissatisfied Generation? An Age–Period–Cohort Analysis of the Political Satisfaction of Youth in Hong Kong from 1997 to 2014

Abstract

For this study, a comprehensive test was conducted on the net effects of age and cohort on political satisfaction in Hong Kong. We use a newly developed methodology of Age-Period-Cohort analysis known as the Cross-Classified Random Effects Model and a pooled dataset of repeated cross-sectional surveys from 1997 to 2014. The findings reveal a U-shaped relationship between age and political satisfaction, in which the level of satisfaction of the youth is between that of the middle-aged and elderly, while the middleaged express the least satisfaction and the elderly have the highest level of satisfaction. However, cohort effects are relatively weak. There is no evidence that later cohorts are less satisfied than earlier cohorts. These results indicate that the new generation is more politically dissatisfied due to their age rather than their cohort. We also find that period effects interact with age and cohort effects. The recent decline in the political satisfaction of 20-year-olds and of the cohort born in 1986 or later is more pronounced than that of older people and earlier birth cohorts. Under the rule of the current Chief Executive, young people were found to be much more dissatisfied than older people. The rise in the price of housing in recent years has also sharpened the differences in political satisfaction between those of different ages and cohorts.

Contesting Visions of Hong Kong’s Rule of Law and Young People’s Political Discontent

“…What is more, many young people have become disaffected by Hong Kong’s deteriorating political climate. A series of controversies, for example, a proposed and later shelved national security bill in 2003, the construction of the Express Rail Link connecting Hong Kong with Mainland China in the late 2000s and more recently the 8.31 Decision, exposed the many social ills widely attributed to Hong Kong’s lack of democracy and its dysfunctional political institutions (Wong et al, 2017). Structural inequalities amid escalating fears of ‘Mainlandization’ further eroded the legitimacy of the regime, which culminated in surging youth activism seen in the Umbrella Movement under the slogan ‘I want universal suffrage’.…”

Welfare or politics? A survey experiment of political discontent and support for redistribution in Hong Kong

“…Second, youth activism responds to their sense of individual well-being. Young people’s dissatisfaction with government policy has increased far more rapidly than older generations’ in recent years (Wong et al, 2017), while their sense of happiness has significantly declined (Chiu and Wong, 2018). Finally, housing affordability and availability are arguably the most pressing issues for young people (Forrest and Xian, 2018; Wong et al, 2017).…”

“…Young people’s dissatisfaction with government policy has increased far more rapidly than older generations’ in recent years (Wong et al, 2017), while their sense of happiness has significantly declined (Chiu and Wong, 2018). Finally, housing affordability and availability are arguably the most pressing issues for young people (Forrest and Xian, 2018; Wong et al, 2017). Compared with older generations of Hong Kong residents, who already own property or reside in public housing, the 20–24 age group has had a remarkably and consistently low home ownership rate of about 2% for more than three decades (Census and Statistics Department, 2018).…”

“…Existing studies discuss the dissatisfaction and unhappiness of Hong Kong’s youth (e.g. Chiu and Wong, 2018; Wong et al, 2017), but the source of this discontent is not well understood beyond correlations. For example, while the Umbrella Movement’s demands were generally political, the impetus for the protests likely had an economic dimension (Wong, 2017).…”

The Housing Boom and the Rise of Localism in Hong Kong: Evidence from the Legislative Council Election in 2016

“…What has caused the rise of localism? Extant studies focus predominantly on cultural explanations, such as generational politics (Wong, Zheng, and Wan 2017), Hong Kong identity and anti-China sentiment (Ma 2011(Ma , 2017Veg 2017;Kaeding 2017), or societal approaches (So 2017).…”