Abstract. The class of time-decreasing forward performance processes is analyzed in a portfolio choice model of Itô-type asset dynamics. The associated optimal wealth and portfolio processes are explicitly constructed and their probabilistic properties are discussed. These formulae are, in turn, used in analyzing how the investor's preferences can be calibrated to the market, given his desired investment targets.Key words. portfolio choice, forward investment performance, heat equation
AMS subject classifications. Primary, 91B16, 91B28DOI. 10.1137/0807452501. Introduction. This paper is a contribution to portfolio management from the perspective of investor preferences and, hence, in its spirit is related to the classical expected utility maximization problem introduced by Merton [8]. Therein, one first chooses an investment horizon and assigns a utility function at the end of it and, in turn, seeks an investment strategy which delivers the maximal expected (indirect) utility of terminal wealth. Recently, we proposed an alternative approach to optimal portfolio choice which is based on the so-called forward performance criterion (see, among others, [10] and [9]). In this approach, the investor does not choose her risk preferences at a single point in time, as is the case in the Merton model, but has the flexibility to revise them dynamically.Herein, we focus on a specific case of a forward performance criterion, originally introduced in [12]. This criterion is a composition of deterministic and stochastic inputs. The deterministic input corresponds to the investor's preferences, or alternatively, to her tolerance towards risk. It is investor specific, represented by a function u (x, t) , which is increasing and concave in x and decreasing in t. The stochastic input, however, is universal for all investors and is given by A t =