A dynamic domino effect risk analysis model for rail transport of hazardous material

Zarei, Esmaeil; Gholamizadeh, Kamran; Khan, Faisal; Khakzad, Nima

doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2021.104666

Cited by 34 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…FTA is a properly systematized technique for assessing the failure probability of different systems into a visual diagram called a fault tree, which allows both quantitative and qualitative evaluation projects [22,55]. An FTA is the backward safety analysis method that begins with the possible dangerous event (top event or TE) and progresses to the Intermediate Events (IEs) and Basic Events (BEs), respectively [56]. The FTA can be constructed by two nodes (gate/event) and the graphical decomposition of a TE into IEs and BEs articulated by logic gates [9].…”

Section: Fault Tree Analysis (Fta)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment of methanol storage tank fire accident using hybrid FTA-SPA

et al. 2023

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Fire accidents in storage tanks are of great importance due to the difficulty in extinguishing and ease of spread to nearby products. This study aimed to introduce a framework based on FTA-based Set Pair Analysis (SPA) established via experts’ elicitation to identify and assess the risk of storage tank fire. In the quantitative FTA of a system, sufficient data are only sometimes available to calculate the failure probability of the system appertains to study. Thus, the obtained result of the SPA added new value to the Basic Events (BEs) and estimated top event. To illustrate the applicability of the proposed approach, a fault tree of the methanol storage tank fire is performed and analyzed BEs. According to the obtained results, the fire accident was computed by 48 BEs, and the occurrence probability value of the top event was estimated 2.58E-1/year. In addition, the most crucial paths that led to the fire accident are listed in this study. The proposed approach established in the present study can assist decision-makers in determining where to take preventative or appropriate action on the storage tank system. Moreover, it can be adjusted for various systems with limited manipulation.

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Section: Fault Tree Analysis (Fta)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment of methanol storage tank fire accident using hybrid FTA-SPA

et al. 2023

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“…e main reason for selecting BS is its capability to assess the explosion pressure using all the factors influencing overpressure and flame propagation speed [4]. is consequently leads to the determination of the explosion blast intensity by assessing the propagating of the flame front, fuel reactivity, and obstacle density.…”

Section: Modeling Of Vcementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Statistical data show that 10% of all materials were transported via a railway network in 2014 in Iran [2]. Despite the lower share of the rail network in materials' transportation, statistical data show that a significant percentage of hazardous chemicals is transported using this network [3,4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative Risk Analysis on Rail Transportation of Hazardous Materials

Mohammadfam

Zarei

Yazdi

et al. 2022

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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The hazardous nature of the chemical materials is of significant concern in the economic viability of rail transportation globally. The potential risks of these materials to cause severe health impairments and catastrophic accidents have been widely studied and reported. Moreover, several models have been employed for assessing the risks associated with transporting hazardous materials by rail. However, a more holistic, quantitative, and robust model should incorporate more potential risk-triggered criteria, especially those causing severe health loss and devastating consequences like vapor cloud explosion. This study develops a risk assessment model by incorporating potential health risk factors and the obstacle circumstances. The potential risk factors are population density, route distance from residential areas, and the availability of sensitive third parties for health consequences. The proposed model utilizes Bayesian networks for causality modeling of the material release scenarios and fuzzy set theory for estimating the health effects and severity impact coefficient. Finally, individual risk curves and safe distances from the railway are developed. A real rail system for gasoline transportation in Tehran is investigated to evaluate the model’s effectiveness. The study provides panoramic leverages for risk-managed decision-making for safely transporting hazardous material by rail.

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“…To formulate two complex integer programming models, the basic and extended unit commitment models, he used a robust two-step optimization approach, as well as a column and constraint algorithm to accurately solve the proposed models [30]. Zarei et al used an advanced probabilistic approach with the Bayesian network to present a risk analysis model for analysing the domino effects of hazardous material rail transport [31].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fuzzy Robust Optimization in Closed-Loop Supply Chain Network Model for Hazardous Products (Lead-Acid Battery)

Meybodi

Tayebi

Laleh

2022

IJIMES

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This paper models a closed-loop supply chain network problem for hazardous products in the face of demand uncertainty and variable costs. The designed model includes a set of suppliers, production centers, distribution, recycling, disposal, collection and end customers in which strategic and tactical decisions are made simultaneously. Among the decisions made in this paper is the location of production, distribution and collection centers and determining the optimal amount of product flow between the levels of the supply chain network. Methodology: In this paper, the Epsilon constraint method is used to solve a multi-objective model in GMAS software. This article also uses uniform data to solve the problem. Findings: The results of solving the model with fuzzy robust optimization method show that with increasing the uncertainty rate and also reducing the transfer time of hazardous products, the total network costs as well as the amount of greenhouse gas emissions have increased. Also, the study of Pareto front to optimize the total design costs and the amount of greenhouse gas emissions shows that by reducing the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in the network, the costs related to location and routing increase. Originality/Value: In this paper a fuzzy robust optimization is used in closed-loop supply chain network model for hazardous products (Lead-Acid Battery).

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A dynamic domino effect risk analysis model for rail transport of hazardous material

Cited by 34 publications

References 59 publications

Risk assessment of methanol storage tank fire accident using hybrid FTA-SPA

Risk assessment of methanol storage tank fire accident using hybrid FTA-SPA

Quantitative Risk Analysis on Rail Transportation of Hazardous Materials

Fuzzy Robust Optimization in Closed-Loop Supply Chain Network Model for Hazardous Products (Lead-Acid Battery)

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