A dynamic mathematical test of international property securities bubbles and crashes

Hui, Eddie C.M.; Zheng, Xian; Wang, Hui

doi:10.1016/j.physa.2009.12.007

Cited by 10 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…This is consistent with the results in Ref. [37] as Hong Kong's securitized property market has experienced more fluctuations and shocks than other markets (i.e. the US, the UK, Japan and Singapore in Ref.…”

Section: Short-term Dynamics Of Each Marketsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Besides, the bust in Hong Kong's securitized property market is much shorter than in other markets. This indicates that the securitized property market in Hong Kong fluctuates more frequently and sharply than other markets, which echoes with [37] as the securitized property market in Hong Kong endures more fluctuations and shocks than others. (d) It is remarkable that the general stock market completes more cycles than the securitized property market does.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 66%

“…Securitized property markets constitute an important component in the global stock market, and always go before other industries when affected by major events and regulations [37]. Due to its strong relationship with other industries, the contagion scatters widely and rapidly to influence other segments of the economy significantly.…”

Section: Market and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…the US, the UK, Japan and Singapore in Ref. [37]). Hong Kong, as a special open window of mainland China to the world, endures various external impacts, not only from other countries, also from mainland China.…”

Section: Short-term Dynamics Of Each Marketmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Can we predict the property cycle? A study of securitized property market

Hui

Wang

2015

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

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Section: Short-term Dynamics Of Each Marketsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 66%

Section: Market and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Short-term Dynamics Of Each Marketmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Can we predict the property cycle? A study of securitized property market

Hui

Wang

2015

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

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“…Hui et al . ; Angeletos & La'O ) but also used in ecology (e.g. Arthington & Balcome ), the variable undergoes repeated episodes of boom and bust.…”

Section: The Boom‐bust Dynamic and Its Variantsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Boom‐bust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept

et al. 2017

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Boom-bust dynamics -the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline -have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage troublesome invaders. However, boom-bust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. Here, we define boom-bust dynamics and provide specific suggestions for improving the application of the boom-bust concept. Boom-bust dynamics can arise from many causes, some closely associated with invasions, but others occurring across a wide range of ecological settings, especially when environmental conditions are changing rapidly. As a result, it is difficult to infer cause or predict future trajectories merely by observing the dynamic. We use tests with simulated data to show that a common metric for detecting and describing boom-bust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all. We review and test other metrics that are better suited to describe boom-bust dynamics. Understanding the frequency and importance of boom-bust dynamics requires empirical studies of large, representative, long-term data sets that use clear definitions of boom-bust, appropriate analytical methods, and careful interpretations.

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Housing market bubbles and urban resilience: Applying systems theory

Ayub

Naderpajouh

Boukamp

et al. 2020

Cities

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In this paper, we aim to connect the academic discourses of housing market and urban resilience. For this purpose, we discussed the housing market and its performance within the broader housing system, with a specific attention to the transient state of the housing market bubble. Through a systematic literature review, the housing system is framed based on the involved actors and their interactions. This systems theory based view is then used to provide a broader definition of the variations in the market performance within the urban resilience literature. In this sense, the theoretical underpinning of the literature of resilience within the systems and the observed variations in the housing market performance is discussed in view of shocks and stressors to the system, as well as equilibria and responses to disturbances. The aim is to provide a foundation for an alternative theoretical framework that focuses on interactions within the market and can be used to understand the impact of the housing market's financial drivers on urban resilience.

show abstract

A dynamic mathematical test of international property securities bubbles and crashes

Cited by 10 publications

References 23 publications

Can we predict the property cycle? A study of securitized property market

Can we predict the property cycle? A study of securitized property market

Boom‐bust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept

Housing market bubbles and urban resilience: Applying systems theory

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