A dynamic model for hardware/software obsolescence

Abstract

Purpose – Since technological lifecycles do not always match hardware/software (HW/SW) lifecycles, obsolescence becomes a major issue in system lifecycle management as it can cause premature and unscheduled replacement of HW/SW subsystems. The purpose of this paper is to report a dynamic model to predict the obsolescence dates for HW/SW subsystems. Design/methodology/approach – The dynamic model estimates obsolescence dates for HW/SW subsystems based on graph theory concept. The model depicts the stages of subsystem obsolescence through transmittances composed of probability and time-distribution elements. The model predicts probability and mean time to obsolescence for line replaceable units (LRUs) over the lifetime of the system. An illustrative example in signaling systems used in a train control system was used to demonstrate the application of this model. Findings – Generally, the short timespan for HW/SW subsystems, which are periodically replaced with newer technologies, results in the development of new product lines by suppliers while they try to support legacy systems for a reasonable period of time. Obsolescence of HW/SW subsystems increases operation and maintenance costs as legacy systems are typically more expensive to maintain. The costs can be reduced by an optimum time to obsolescence derived from the model. Practical implications – This research adds to the body of knowledge on asset management and maintenance strategy. This paper may be of particular interest to reliability, maintainability and availability practitioners and project managers. Originality/value – The originality of this paper lies in developing a graph-based model that predicts probability and mean time to obsolescence for LRUs over the lifetime of the system.

Synergizing model‐based systems engineering, modularity, and software container concepts to manage obsolescence

“…For example, in addition to increased interoperability and upgradeability, the primary benefits of MOSA are published to be: enhanced competition, increased innovation, and potential cost savings or cost avoidance. 4 Of course, modular systems designed for upgradeability generally can accommodate replacement of obsolete parts with less impact than systems not designed with modular concepts. Rao and colleagues 53 introduced an avionics systems architecture with upgrade potential that infuses knowledge of future system design parameters into decisions about existing architectures to better prepare for upgrade.…”

“…6,55 The CMM of obsolescence management presented next leverages modularity design principles and the software container concept specifically to mitigate obsolescence impacts. 4 Recently, MOSA practitioners and policymakers have begun recognizing its obsolescence management benefits. An Air Force Materiel Command Instruction requires analysis of transitioning to open systems architectures and lists obsolescence managements among the benefits of doing so.…”

Obsolescence in IT Work: Causes, Consequences and Counter-Measures

“…obsolete systems. This makes them more expensive to maintain [55]. At the macro level, technological change in the labor market can lead to a skills mismatch between supply and demand and thus to higher unemployment [54].…”

Mobilising information systems scholarship for a circular economy: Review, synthesis, and directions for future research

“…This focus needs to be complemented with a more differentiated view of the positive and negative impacts on sustainability when infusing digital technology into products. While positive effects such as dematerialization have received some scholarly attention (Ryen, Babbitt, Tyler, & Babbitt, 2014), negative impacts such as faster obsolescence of interdependent software and hardware (Ixmeier & Kranz, 2020;Jenab, Noori, Weinsier, & Khoury, 2014;Sandborn, 2007) are under-researched.…”

“…This focus needs to be complemented with a more differentiated view of the positive and negative impacts on sustainability when infusing digital technology into products. While positive effects such as dematerialization have received some scholarly attention (Ryen, Babbitt, Tyler, & Babbitt, 2014), negative impacts such as faster obsolescence of interdependent software and hardware (Ixmeier & Kranz, 2020; Jenab, Noori, Weinsier, & Khoury, 2014; Sandborn, 2007) are under‐researched. Future research could (a) highlight and discuss both positive and negative sustainability effects of digital technologies in the design of new product offerings, (b) provide practical guidelines for how to mitigate negative effects, and (c) study how to design digital products that use digital technologies to dematerialize the product offering.…”