A “Ferguson Effect” on 2016 Presidential Vote Preference? Findings from a Framing Experiment Examining “Shy Voters” and Cues Related to Policing and Social Unrest*

Abstract

Objectives. This study explored the sociopolitical influence of controversies related to policing and "law and order" during the 2016 presidential campaign. Following incidences of social unrest sparked by lethal confrontations between police officers and people of color, Donald Trump condemned protesters and expressed unwavering support for the police, while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders expressed empathy with communities of color and called for criminal justice reform. Method. We conducted a framing experiment to test whether exposure to images designed to evoke a range of hostile to benign police-civilian interactions affected respondents' vote preference in the lead-up to the presidential election. Results. We found that exposure to an image of police-civilian interactions decreased the likelihood that a respondent would choose not to express a vote preference. This effect was most pronounced among political independents and respondents low in political awareness. We also found that exposure to a picture of the militarized police response to protesters in Ferguson, Missouri, significantly altered candidate choice, and this effect varied across political partisanship. Conclusions. We conclude that electoral rhetoric about crime, mass protests, and "law and order" continues to be impactful in 21st-century American politics. We also find some evidence consistent with the "shy Trump voters" hypothesis that some people were unwilling to publicly disclose their preference for Donald Trump in pre-election polls.

The determinants of voting for Republican congressional candidates in the Texas borderlands

“…The use of aggregate data has some advantages over survey research. For example, there is some evidence for underreporting of voting for Trump in 2016 due to the "shy Trump voter" effect (Kennedy et al 2018) or variations on that theme depending on the study (cf., Wozniak, Calfano, and Drakulich 2019). Generally, respondents provide misleading responses when they feel pressure to provide "socially correct" answers to survey questions.…”

Covering the Dawsons: Racial Variation in Newspaper Framing of Urban Crime

“…A direct link between media coverage and political behavior is not confirmed in research (Prior 2013). However, there is some evidence that media framing of issues shapes some political attitudes and behaviors (Nie and Waltenburg 2017;Prior 2013;Wozniak, Calfano, and Drakulich 2019). Even without a direct link between media coverage and political behavior, it is still important to understand how differences in coverage of events like the Dawson deaths manifest in newspaper articles.…”

The Partisans and the Persuadables: Public Views of Black Lives Matter and the 2020 Protests

“…However, Obama’s presidency also helped birth the Black Lives Matter movement not only through the raised expectations of its campaigns but also through frustration with his administration’s silence on key racial justice issues (Taylor 2016). In response, Donald Trump’s campaign for president made unusually explicit references to racial and ethnic resentment (Abramowitz and McCoy 2019), using the police and the Black Lives Matter movement as racist dog whistles (Drakulich et al 2020; Wozniak, Calfano, and Drakulich 2019). In short, advocacy for racial equality and justice—which necessarily involves the dismantling of existing biases in the distribution of privileges and resources—simultaneously provides the opportunity to rally those concerned about these very social changes.…”