A first study on the impact of current and future control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Germany

Barbarossa, Maria Vittoria; Fuhrmann, Jan; Heidecke, Julian; Varma, Hridya Vinod; Castelletti, Noemi; Meinke, Jan H.; Krieg, Stefan; Lippert, Thomas

doi:10.1101/2020.04.08.20056630

Cited by 20 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…We establish a compartmental population model, adjusted to the specific characteristics of COVID-19. Several studies [15][16][17]19,47] have proposed similar models for the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We consider the following compartments.…”

Section: Description Of the Transmission Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary and post-lockdown scenarios

Röst

Bartha

Bogya

et al. 2020

Preprint

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COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a huge reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.

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Section: Description Of the Transmission Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary and post-lockdown scenarios

Röst

Bartha

Bogya

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…Model simulations (Fig. 7a) show that in this scenario a peak Compared to our initial investigations [4], here we have adjusted the baseline scenario by taking into account the further restrictive measures adopted in the last week of March 2020 (reduction of economic activity, restrictions on meetings in public space, and further increased remote working activity). Said enhanced intervention scenario suggests that the number of active cases peaked with about 33,000 infected individuals at the beginning of April 2020 (Fig.…”

Section: Ld Partial Economic and Social Activitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…First model results were presented in our preliminary work [4]. Here we present a follow-up of our study, including most recent data and information about testing activity made available by the RKI [32].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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The impact of current and future control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Germany

Barbarossa

Fuhrmann

Meinke

et al. 2020

Preprint

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The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), identified in China at the end of December 2019 and causing the disease COVID-19, has meanwhile led to outbreaks all over the globe with about 2.2 million confirmed cases and more than 150,000 deaths as of April 17, 2020 [37]. In view of most recent information on testing activity [32], we present here an update of our initial work [4]. In this work, mathematical models have been developed to study the spread of COVID-19 among the population in Germany and to asses the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Systems of differential equations of SEIR type are extended here to account for undetected infections, as well as for stages of infections and age groups. The models are calibrated on data until April 5, data from April 6 to 14 are used for model validation. We simulate different possible strategies for the mitigation of the current outbreak, slowing down the spread of the virus and thus reducing the peak in daily diagnosed cases, the demand for hospitalization or intensive care units admissions, and eventually the number of fatalities. Our results suggest that a partial (and gradual) lifting of introduced control measures could soon be possible if accompanied by further increased testing activity, strict isolation of detected cases and reduced contact to risk groups.

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“…Mathematical models have been developed to better understand the global spread [37] and the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 for many countries, including Australia [38], France [39], Germany [40], UK [41], and the USA [42,43]. Such models have been used to project the progress of the outbreak and to estimate the impact of control measures on reducing disease burden.…”

Section: Transmission Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Hungary and Post-Lockdown Scenarios

Röst

Bartha

Bogya

et al. 2020

Viruses

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COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a considerable reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.

show abstract

A first study on the impact of current and future control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Germany

Cited by 20 publications

References 4 publications

Early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary and post-lockdown scenarios

Early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary and post-lockdown scenarios

The impact of current and future control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Germany

Early Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Hungary and Post-Lockdown Scenarios

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