A flaw in the model…that defines how the world works

Abstract

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

Is the impact of social distancing on coronavirus growth rates effective across different settings? A non-parametric and local regression approach to test and compare the growth rate

“…To resolve this, climate modellers use multi-model ensembles in their decision-making processes, acknowledging that ‘even if the perfect climate model did exist, any projection is always conditional on the scenario considered’ (Tebaldi & Knutti, 2007). Similarly, after the 2008 global financial crisis, over-reliance on equilibrium models by policymakers was recognised as both ‘ubiquitous’ (Bezemer, 2010) and ‘flawed’ (Bieta et al, 2012); leading to widespread calls for alternative approaches.…”