A Forecasting Model to Predict the Demand of Roses in an Ecuadorian Small Business Under Uncertain Scenarios

Abstract

Ecuador is worldwide considered as one of the main natural flower producers and exporters -being roses the most salient ones. Such a fact has naturally led the emergence of small and medium sized companies devoted to the production of quality roses in the Ecuadorian highlands, which intrinsically entails resource usage optimization. One of the first steps towards optimizing the use of resources is to forecast demand, since it enables a fair perspective of the future, in such a manner that the in-advance raw materials supply can be previewed against eventualities, resources usage can be properly planned, as well as the misuse can be avoided. Within this approach, the problem of forecasting the supply of roses was solved into two phases: the first phase consists of the macro-forecast of the total amount to be exported by the Ecuadorian flower sector by the year 2020, using multi-layer neural networks. In the second phase, the monthly demand for the main rose varieties offered by the study company was micro-forecasted by testing seven models. In addition, a Bayesian network model is designed, which takes into consideration macroeconomic aspects, the level of employability in Ecuador and weather-related aspects. This Bayesian network provided satisfactory results without the need for a large amount of historical data and at a lowcomputational cost.

Bayesian Network Design for Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Price Prediction Driven by Fluctuation Patterns and Trends

“…The result comparison is given between our prediction model and the actual value from the dataset (as the benchmark): https://bepi.mpob.gov.my [8]. Table 2 shows our price prediction approach against CPO price in 2021.…”

“…The adaptive price prediction models heavily influence the dynamic market pricing determining process mentioned by several researchers [4][5][6]. Several authors [5][6][7][8][9] utilized Bayesian probability in their pricing applications. The Bayesian probability rules specify how to create inferences about hypotheses from the dataset.…”

Research on preview control algorithm of PRS-XY hybrid machine tool based on kinematics calculation

“…The preview control system based on feedforward compensation consists of a basic control loop and a preview feedforward loop. In order to reduce the overshoot and enhance the suppression ability to the load disturbance, The I-P control loop is used as the basic circuit of control circuit [11]. Based on this, preview feedforward compensation link is added to form the preview feed forward control .…”