A Forensic Examination of China's National Accounts

Chen, Wei; Chen, Xilu; Hsieh, Chang-Tai; Song, Zheng

doi:10.1353/eca.2019.0001

Cited by 70 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Both electricity consumption and nighttime light intensity closely track economic activity and have been used extensively to improve national account estimates of GDP (e.g. Henderson et al 2012, Lyu et al 2018, Chen et al 2019. Both proxies have also been used to assess the economic impact of major policy measures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Examining the economic impact of COVID-19 in India through daily electricity consumption and nighttime light intensity

2021

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The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted economic activity in India. Adjusting policies to contain transmission while mitigating the economic impact requires an assessment of the economic situation in near real-time and at high spatial granularity. This paper shows that daily electricity consumption and monthly nighttime light intensity can proxy for economic activity in India. Energy consumption is compared with the predictions of a consumption model that explains 90 percent of the variation in normal times. Energy consumption declined strongly after a national lockdown was implemented on March 25, 2020 and remained a quarter below normal levels throughout April. It recovered subsequently, but electricity consumption remained lower even in September. Not all states and union territories have been affected equally. While electricity consumption halved in some, it declined very little in others. Part of the heterogeneity is explained by the prevalence of COVID-19 infections, the share of manufacturing, and return migration. During the national lockdown, higher COVID-19 infection rates at the district level were associated with larger declines in nighttime light intensity. Without effectively reducing the risk of a COVID-19 infection, voluntary reductions of mobility will hence prevent a return to full economic potential even when restrictions are relaxed. Together, daily electricity consumption and nighttime light intensity allow monitoring economic activity in near real-time and high spatial granularity.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Examining the economic impact of COVID-19 in India through daily electricity consumption and nighttime light intensity

2021

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“…From an analysis of national and subnational statistics only, it thus appears that it is the nature and quality of statistics, not necessarily hybridization, which may explain the discrepancies in the literature and the differences in accounts of the welfare mix in Chinese elder care sector. Chinese statistics in general have been criticized as unreliable and contradicting by both Chinese (Chen, Chen, Hsieh, & Zheng, 2019) and international scholars (Holz, 2014;Odgaard, 1990). Interestingly, reported reasons for statistical unreliability are shifts in terminology over time and local under-or over-reporting of data (Odgaard, 1990).…”

Section: National and Municipal Statistical Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Hybridization in China's elder care service provision

Maags

2020

Soc Policy Adm

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Although the party-state has embarked on a mission to increase elder care services, evaluating this development according to different sectors demonstrates certain challenges. Official statistics do not include sector-specific information, and while provider websites suggest that elder care services are largely in public hands, Chinese experts argue that they are mostly "civilian-run." How can we explain these discrepancies in data on Chinese elder care? Drawing on the concept of hybridization and triangulating quantitative and qualitative data, I argue that the partystate's efforts to "socialize" elder care provision has resulted in hybridization within the industry which blurs the line between care providers and obfuscates the stark role of the state in elder care service provision. During the implementation of state-initiated hybridization, providers misclassify their ownership type to benefit from financial incentives or circumvent political control, resulting in even greater hybridization and fragmentation on the ground.

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“…Both have been shown to closely track economic activity around the globe and have hence been used to improve national account estimates of economic activity (e.g. Henderson et al 2012, Lyu et al 2018, Chen et al 2019. Electricity is an input to activities throughout the economy, from industrial production to commerce and household activity, and changes in its 103 The authors, Robert Beyer, Sebastian Franco-Bedoya and Virgilio Galdo are from the World Bank's South Asia Region Chief Economist's office.…”

Section: Electricity Consumption and Night-time Lights: Two Promisingmentioning

confidence: 99%

India Development Update, July 2020

2020

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A Forensic Examination of China's National Accounts

Cited by 70 publications

References 28 publications

Examining the economic impact of COVID-19 in India through daily electricity consumption and nighttime light intensity

Examining the economic impact of COVID-19 in India through daily electricity consumption and nighttime light intensity

Hybridization in China's elder care service provision

India Development Update, July 2020

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