A forward modeling approach to paleoclimatic interpretation of tree‐ring data

Abstract

[1] We investigate the interpretation of tree-ring data using the Vaganov-Shashkin forward model of tree-ring formation. This model is derived from principles of conifer wood growth, and explicitly incorporates a nonlinear daily timescale model of the multivariate environmental controls on tree-ring growth. The model results are shown to be robust with respect to primary moisture and temperature parameter choices. When applied to the simulation of tree-ring widths from North America and Russia from the Mann et al. (1998) and Vaganov et al. (2006) data sets, the forward model produces skill on annual and decadal timescales which is about the same as that achieved using classical dendrochronological statistical modeling techniques. The forward model achieves this without site-by-site tuning as is performed in statistical modeling. The results support the interpretation of this broad-scale network of tree-ring width chronologies primarily as climate proxies for use in statistical paleoclimatic field reconstructions, and point to further applications in climate science.

Recent reduction in the frequency of frost accounts for most of the increased growth of a high elevation spruce forest in northwestern China

“…As a consequence of these rapid asymmetrical changes, statistical correlations of growth with basic weather data are becoming less reliable (Briffa et al 1998;Gao et al 2013) and much more variable (Zhang and Wilmking 2010). As an alternative to conventional dendrochronological analysis, process-based modeling may offer a more holistic interpretation (Evans et al 2006).…”

“…Process-based models offer an alternative means of evaluating growth responses because, unlike statistical models, they include functions that define thresholds to constrain photosynthesis, transpiration, and growth and do not require site-by-site tuning (Evans et al 2006). Li et al (2014) applied a process-based model to predict the growth of individual Pinus koraiensis trees in one stand located in the Changbai Mountains in northeastern China.…”

Towards the assimilation of tree-ring-width records using ensemble Kalman filtering techniques

“…Accordingly, the assimilation of a given proxy type should be pursued on its own merits, using a forward model able to simulate the climate recording processes specific to that particular kind of proxy record. Nowadays, there exist forward models for many different proxy types, most notably TRW Evans et al 2006;Tolwinski-Ward et al 2011), treering isotopes (Roden et al 2000;Danis et al 2012;Evans 2007), coral isotopes (Thompson et al 2011), ocean sediments (Heinze 2001;Schmidt 1999) and stalagmite isotopes (Baker et al 2012). There are also initiatives to model the transport of isotopes within the atmosphere (Sturm et al 2010).…”

Visual Parameterization of Vaganov-Shashkin Simulation Model and its Application in Dendroecological Research

“…Именно к этим моделям и относится имитационная модель прироста го-дичных колец древесных растений Ваганова-Шашкина (Ваганов, Шашкин, 2000;Vaganov et al, 2006;Anchukaitis et al, 2006;Evans et al, 2006;Touchan et al, 2012 (Тычков и др., 2012;Shishov et al, 2015).…”