A fractional order approach to modeling and simulations of the novel COVID-19

Abstract

The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), or COVID-19, has emerged and spread at fast speed globally; the disease has become an unprecedented threat to public health worldwide. It is one of the greatest public health challenges in modern times, with no proven cure or vaccine. In this paper, our focus is on a fractional order approach to modeling and simulations of the novel COVID-19. We introduce a fractional type susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered (SEIR) model to gain insight into the ongoing pandemic. Our proposed model incorporates transmission rate, testing rates, and transition rate (from asymptomatic to symptomatic population groups) for a holistic study of the coronavirus disease. The impacts of these parameters on the dynamics of the solution profiles for the disease are simulated and discussed in detail. Furthermore, across all the different parameters, the effects of the fractional order derivative are also simulated and discussed in detail. Various simulations carried out enable us gain deep insights into the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19. The simulation results confirm that fractional calculus is an appropriate tool in modeling the spread of a complex infectious disease such as the novel COVID-19. In the absence of vaccine and treatment, our analysis strongly supports the significance reduction in the transmission rate as a valuable strategy to curb the spread of the virus. Our results suggest that tracing and moving testing up has an important benefit. It reduces the number of infected individuals in the general public and thereby reduces the spread of the pandemic. Once the infected individuals are identified and isolated, the interaction between susceptible and infected individuals diminishes and transmission reduces. Furthermore, aggressive testing is also highly recommended.

An Integrated Neural Network and SEIR Model to Predict COVID-19

“…Owusu-Mensah et al [12] introduced a fractional-type SEIR model. They introduced a new parameter named testing rates accompanying transmission rate and transition rate.…”

Multi-Model Selection and Analysis for COVID-19

“…Based on the references [6,20,21,35], we could easily obtain unique solutions and a locally asymptotically stable of equilibrium points. We only take fractional SEIR-QD as an example; other models can get similar results.…”

Modified homotopy methods for generalized fractional perturbed Zakharov–Kuznetsov equation in dusty plasma

“…The study of fractional partial differential equations (FPDEs) has enticed the interest of many researchers in the field of applied sciences and engineering by virtue of its enormous applications in electrodynamics, random walk, biotechnology, viscoelasticity, chaos theory, signal and image processing, nanotechnology, and many other areas [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20]. Also, essential properties of fractional calculus were outlined by many researchers (see [21][22][23][24] for detailed discussion).…”