A Framework for Assessing the Impact of Outbreak Response Immunization Programs

Abstract

The impact of outbreak response immunization (ORI) can be estimated by comparing observed outcomes to modelled counterfactual scenarios without ORI, but the most appropriate metrics depend on stakeholder needs and data availability. This study developed a framework for using mathematical models to assess the impact of ORI for vaccine-preventable diseases. Framework development involved (1) the assessment of impact metrics based on stakeholder interviews and literature reviews determining data availability and capacity to capture as model outcomes; (2) mapping investment in ORI elements to model parameters to define scenarios; (3) developing a system for engaging stakeholders and formulating model questions, performing analyses, and interpreting results; and (4) example applications for different settings and pathogens. The metrics identified as most useful were health impacts, economic impacts, and the risk of severe outbreaks. Scenario categories included investment in the response scale, response speed, and vaccine targeting. The framework defines four phases: (1) problem framing and data sourcing (identification of stakeholder needs, metrics, and scenarios); (2) model choice; (3) model implementation; and (4) interpretation and communication. The use of the framework is demonstrated by application to two outbreaks, measles in Papua New Guinea and Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The framework is a systematic way to engage with stakeholders and ensure that an analysis is fit for purpose, makes the best use of available data, and uses suitable modelling methodology.