A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions

Fujimori, Shinichiro; Krey, Volker; Vuuren, Detlef van; Oshiro, Ken; Sugiyama, Masahiro; Chunark, Puttipong; Limmeechokchai, Bundit; Mittal, Shivika; Nishiura, Osamu; Park, Chan; Rajbhandari, Salony; Herran, Diego Silva; Tran, Thanh-Tu; Zhao, Shiya; Ochi, Yoshimasa; Shukla, P.R.; Masui, Toshihiko; Nguyen, Phuong V. H.; Cabardos, Anique-Marie; Riahi, Keywan

doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01048-z

Cited by 40 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…The four climate change mitigation scenarios were based on the baseline, but meeting various climate change mitigation targets or climate policies. This assessment followed the framework of a global comparative national study (Fujimori et al 2021) (Table 1). The climate policies covered carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from energy and non-energy-related activities.…”

Section: Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Poverty and inequality implications of carbon pricing under the long-term climate target

et al. 2022

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Many countries have taken stringent climate policies to minimize the risks by climate change. But these policies could burden households and the poor with the extra costs and threaten their wellbeing. However, the consequences of climate policies on poverty and welfare loss are seldom presented in stringent long-term climate change mitigation projections. Carbon pricing is a cost-effective approach; how it affects households varies among countries. This study investigated the distributional effects and poverty implications of carbon pricing in China during the transition towards carbon neutrality and the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals. We assessed multiple poverty and equity standards in future scenarios with a newly developed integrated assessment model. It was found that climate change mitigation efforts would not greatly hinder poverty alleviation in China, with the poverty headcount under the $3.2/cap/day-threshold being less than 0.3 million people in 2050 in most scenarios. A carbon tax became a regressive factor mainly due to price increases in food and energy goods. This indicates that the distributional effects on carbon pricing should be considered. For example, supplementary policies that compensate for price changes, such as subsidies and early mitigation actions, that lead to modest price increases in the long term are worthy of consideration as valid instruments for the just transition towards the 2 °C or even 1.5 °C pathway.

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Section: Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Poverty and inequality implications of carbon pricing under the long-term climate target

et al. 2022

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“…Moreover, the costs of ambitious mitigation are large, representing >4% of projected GDP in 2050. But these costs must be compared to the costs of instead meeting rising energy demand with fossil fuel energy, as well as the cost per ton of emissions avoided in other regions, e.g., the annual GDP loss to reach 1.5°C-target emissions in Japan is estimated as high as 4.5% 15 . Making such comparisons suggests that, although daunting, mitigation among emerging emitters may be costeffective, and further makes the case for economic support and technology transfer from higher-income countries on the basis of both human development and meeting climate goals.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global mitigation efforts cannot neglect emerging emitters

Cui

Guan

Wang

et al. 2022

Preprint

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International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change have historically focused on reducing energy-related CO2 emissions from countries with either the largest economies (e.g., the EU and the U.S.) and/or the largest populations (e.g., China and India). However, in recent years, emissions have surged among a different and much less-examined group of countries, raising concerns that a next generation of high-emitting economies will obviate current mitigation targets. Here, we analyze the trends and drivers of emissions in each of the 59 countries where emissions 2010-2018 grew faster than the global average (excluding China and India), project their emissions under a range of longer-term energy scenarios, and estimate the costs of decarbonization pathways. Total emissions from these “emerging emitters” reach as much as 7.5 Gt CO2/year in the baseline 2.5° scenario— substantially greater than the emissions from these regions in previously published scenarios that would limit warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C. Such unanticipated emissions would in turn require non-emitting energy deployment from all sectors within these emerging emitters, and faster and deeper reductions in emissions from other countries to meet international climate goals. Moreover, the annual costs of keeping emissions at the low level are in many cases 0.2%-4.1% of countries’ GDP, pointing to potential trade-offs with poverty reduction goals and/or the need for economic support and low-carbon technology transfer from historically high-emitting countries. Our results thus highlight the critical importance of ramping up mitigation efforts in countries that to this point have been largely ignored.

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“…Although the Vietnamese government has decided to implement an emissions trading scheme (ETS; https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/11/19/vietnam-pioneers-post-pandemic-carbon-pricing/#more-313603 ) 53 , management problems have surfaced 54 . A carbon tax is an efficient way to reduce greenhouse gases but carbon pricing interventions have significant negative implications for per-capital GDP, stifling Vietnam’s economic growth 55 . Since emission reduction costs may be higher in some farm households than in others, government should think about using these tax revenues to compensate the farmers involved.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the costs of GHG emissions of multi-product agricultural systems in Vietnam

Yamamoto

Huynh

Saito

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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Besides a vital sector of the economy, agriculture is a primary source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The present paper investigates the impact of carbon tax policy on Vietnamese agriculture by focusing on multi-product systems such as rice, livestock, and aquaculture, traditionally called the Vuon (Garden)–Ao (Pond)–Chuong (livestock pen) system (VAC). In it, farmers use garden, pond, and pen by-products as fertilizer and feed. We use shadow prices and Morishima substitution elasticities as greenhouse gas emissions indicators, estimated with directional output distance function. Farmers in the Mekong Delta region are found to be technologically less efficient than in other regions of Vietnam, though the shadow prices of GHG emissions are lower there too. This indicates that farmers in the Mekong Delta, generally concentrating either on livestock or aquaculture, have greater potential for reducing GHG emissions by way of improvements in technical efficiency than do those in other regions. However, Morishima elasticity estimates show that policy impacts diminish more quickly in the Mekong than elswhere. We suggest the Vietnamese government encourage Mekong Delta farmers to employ technologically more efficient methods or shift to more balanced farming to reduce the shadow price of GHG emissions, encouraging more efficient emissions reduction.

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A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions

Cited by 40 publications

References 74 publications

Poverty and inequality implications of carbon pricing under the long-term climate target

Poverty and inequality implications of carbon pricing under the long-term climate target

Global mitigation efforts cannot neglect emerging emitters

Assessing the costs of GHG emissions of multi-product agricultural systems in Vietnam

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