A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale

Anghileri, Daniela; Pianosi, Francesca; Soncini-Sessa, Rodolfo

doi:10.5194/hess-15-2025-2011

Cited by 25 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…In Southern Europe, the Po valley of Italy is largely affected by modified cryospheric cycle under present and prospective climate change (Bocchiola, ), and multipurpose water management is challenged therein. Among others, Anghileri et al () proposed a framework for assessing climate change impact on the (lake) reservoir's operation of the very important Lake Como of Northern Italy, taking water from the largely snow/ice fed 4,550 km 2 Adda river. They used climatic multimodel ensembles from PRUDENCE project (Christensen & Christensen, ) during 2071–2100 under storyline A2 to feed the HBV (Bergström, ) hydrological model and obtain future flows in the catchment.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some studies have hitherto addressed modified hydrological cycle under future climate change (Aili, Soncini, Bianchi, Diolaiuti, & Bocchiola, ; Bocchiola et al, ; Groppelli, Bocchiola, & Rosso, ; Migliavacca et al, ; Soncini, Bocchiola, Azzoni, & Diolaiuti, ; Soncini et al, ; Soncini et al, ) and impact on water allocation and potential conflicts in shared catchments (e.g., Ansink & Ruijs, ; Bocchiola, Pelosi, & Soncini, ). Recently, several scientists focused on the need for testing and possibly redesigning current system operation (Anghileri, Pianosi, & Soncini‐Sessa, ; Ashofteh, Bozorg Haddad, Akbari Alashti, & Marino, ; Ashofteh, Bozorg Haddad, & Loaiciga, ; Ashofteh, Bozorg Haddad, & Marino, ; Giuliani, Anghileri, Castelletti, Vu, & Soncini‐Sessa, ), mimicking rule curve extraction under climate change conditions, and uncertain hydrology (Ashofteh, Bozorg Haddad, Akbari Alashti, & Marino, ; Feng et al, ; Georgakakos, Yao, et al, ; Georgakakos, Graham, et al, ; Golombek, Kittelsen, & Haddeland, ; Langsdale et al, ; Lee, Fitzgerald, Hamlet, & Burges, ; Majone, Bovolo, Bellin, Blenkinsop, & Fowler, ; Pianosi & Soncini‐Sessa, ; Salazar, Reed, Quinn, Giuliani, & Castelletti, ; Vicuña, Dracup, & Dale, ; Wurbs, Muttiah, & Felden, ; Yao & Georgakakos, ). Among others Ashofteh, Bozorg Haddad, and Loaiciga () used multiobjective genetic programming to extract the optimal rule curves during the historical period and under climate change conditions for the Aidoghmoush reservoir in Iran, and Ashofteh, Bozorg Haddad, and Marino () investigated the risk of increasing water demands under climate change conditions during 2026–2039 for a wide range of agricultural products, watered by an irrigation networks supplied from the Aidoghmoush reservoir in Iran, highlighting the importance of water management issue in this country.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Operation of two major reservoirs of Iran under IPCC scenarios during the XXI century

Akbari‐Alashti

Soncini

Dinpashoh

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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We assess the effects of prospective climate change until 2100 on water management of two major reservoirs of Iran, namely, Dez (3.34 × 109 m3) and Alavian (6 × 107 m3). We tune the Poly‐Hydro model suited for simulation of hydrological cycle in high altitude snow‐fed catchments. We assess optimal operation rules (ORs) for the reservoirs using three algorithms under dynamic and static operation and linear and non‐linear decision rules during control run (1990–2010 for Dez and 2000–2010 for Alavian). We use projected climate scenarios (plus statistical downscaling) from three general circulation models, EC‐Earth, CCSM4, and ECHAM6, and three emission scenarios, or representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for a grand total of nine scenarios, to mimic evolution of the hydrological cycle under future climate until 2100. We subsequently test the ORs under the future hydrological scenarios (at half century and end of century) and the need for reoptimization. Poly‐Hydro model when benchmarked against historical data well mimics the hydrological budget of both catchments, including the main processes of evapotranspiration and streamflows. Teaching–learning‐based optimization delivers the best performance in both reservoirs according to objective scores and is used for future operation. Our projections in Dez catchment depict decreased precipitation along the XXI century, with −1% on average (of the nine scenarios) at half century and −6% at the end of century, with changes in streamflows on average −7% yearly and −13% yearly, respectively. In Alavian, precipitation would decrease by −10% on average at half century and −13% at the end of century, with streamflows −14% yearly and −18% yearly, respectively. Under the projected future hydrology, reservoirs' operation would provide lower performance (i.e., larger lack of water) than now, especially for Alavian dam. Our results provide evidence of potentially decreasing water availability and less effective water management in water stressed areas like Northern Iran here during this century.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Operation of two major reservoirs of Iran under IPCC scenarios during the XXI century

Akbari‐Alashti

Soncini

Dinpashoh

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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“…To characterize the variety of decision‐making authorities acting in the Adda River basin (i.e., farmers and the operator of Lake Como) and to analyze the effects of the different policy adaptation options to the changing climate, we developed an integrated model of the Adda River basin (Figure ), which includes a lumped, conceptual rainfall‐runoff model of the upstream catchment [ Bergström , ]; a mass balance model of the Lake Como dynamics subject to human regulation [ Hashimoto et al ., ; Piccardi and Soncini‐Sessa , ; Galelli and Soncini‐Sessa , ; Anghileri et al ., ; Giuliani and Castelletti , ]; a routing model of the water released from the lake outlets to the intake of the irrigation canals; and a spatially distributed agricultural model simulating soil‐crop water balance, crop growth stages, and final yield in each irrigation unit of the Muzza district [ Doorenbos et al ., ; Allen et al ., ; Facchi et al ., ; Gandolfi et al ., ; Steduto et al ., ; Neitsch et al ., ]. Further details about the different model components are provided in the Supporting Information.…”

Section: Models and Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In particular, we used the GCM HadAM3H [ Pope et al ., ] and the RCM RACMo [ Lenderink et al ., ]. This combination of emission scenario and global/regional models has been demonstrated to produce significantly negative impacts on the system under study [ Anghileri et al ., ].…”

Section: Models and Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A coupled human‐natural systems analysis of irrigated agriculture under changing climate

Giuliani

Castelletti

et al. 2016

Water Resources Research

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Exponentially growing water demands and increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes due to changes in climate and land use are challenging the sustainability of agricultural water systems. Farmers must adapt their management strategies in order to secure food production and avoid crop failures. Investigating the potential for adaptation policies in agricultural systems requires accounting for their natural and human components, along with their reciprocal interactions. Yet this feedback is generally overlooked in the water resources systems literature. In this work, we contribute a novel modeling approach to study the coevolution of irrigated agriculture under changing climate, advancing the representation of the human component within agricultural systems by using normative meta‐models to describe the behaviors of groups of farmers or institutional decisions. These behavioral models, validated against observational data, are then integrated into a coupled human‐natural system simulation model to better represent both systems and their coevolution under future changing climate conditions, assuming the adoption of different policy adaptation options, such as cultivating less water demanding crops. The application to the pilot study of the Adda River basin in northern Italy shows that the dynamic coadaptation of water supply and demand allows farmers to avoid estimated potential losses of more than 10 M€/yr under projected climate changes, while unilateral adaptation of either the water supply or the demand are both demonstrated to be less effective. Results also show that the impact of the different policy options varies as function of drought intensity, with water demand adaptation outperforming water supply adaptation when drought conditions become more severe.

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“…Traditionally, top‐down approaches have been used as the basis for developing adaptation strategies, by describing the performance of water resource systems under a discrete set of global climate projections. Projections are acquired using general circulation models (GCMs) [ Arnell et al ., ; Brekke et al ., ; Vano et al ., ; Wilby and Dessai , ; Anghileri et al ., ; Giuliani and Castelletti , ], the outputs of which are fed into an integrated water resource system model to determine the system's performance with respect to each projection. The system's performance can be classified as “acceptable” or “unacceptable” for each projection, and the potential benefits of alternative adaptation strategies can be explored [ Prudhomme et al ., ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

A bottom‐up approach to identifying the maximum operational adaptive capacity of water resource systems to a changing climate

Culley

Noble

Yates

et al. 2016

Water Resources Research

101

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Many water resource systems have been designed assuming that the statistical characteristics of future inflows are similar to those of the historical record. This assumption is no longer valid due to large‐scale changes in the global climate, potentially causing declines in water resource system performance, or even complete system failure. Upgrading system infrastructure to cope with climate change can require substantial financial outlay, so it might be preferable to optimize existing system performance when possible. This paper builds on decision scaling theory by proposing a bottom‐up approach to designing optimal feedback control policies for a water system exposed to a changing climate. This approach not only describes optimal operational policies for a range of potential climatic changes but also enables an assessment of a system's upper limit of its operational adaptive capacity, beyond which upgrades to infrastructure become unavoidable. The approach is illustrated using the Lake Como system in Northern Italy—a regulated system with a complex relationship between climate and system performance. By optimizing system operation under different hydrometeorological states, it is shown that the system can continue to meet its minimum performance requirements for more than three times as many states as it can under current operations. Importantly, a single management policy, no matter how robust, cannot fully utilize existing infrastructure as effectively as an ensemble of flexible management policies that are updated as the climate changes.

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A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale

Cited by 25 publications

References 23 publications

Operation of two major reservoirs of Iran under IPCC scenarios during the XXI century

Operation of two major reservoirs of Iran under IPCC scenarios during the XXI century

A coupled human‐natural systems analysis of irrigated agriculture under changing climate

A bottom‐up approach to identifying the maximum operational adaptive capacity of water resource systems to a changing climate

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