A framework to quantify the effectiveness of earthquake early warning in mitigating seismic risk

Παπαδόπουλος, Αθανάσιος; Böse, Maren; Danciu, Laurentiu; Clinton, John; Wiemer, Stefan

doi:10.1177/87552930231153424

Cited by 10 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 65 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…2) which is located on soft sedimentary basins in a low-to-moderate seismicity region. However, the area is characterized by a relatively high seismic risk (Wiemer et al 2023;Papadopoulos et al 2023). For several sites, we verify the results against solely earthquake-based techniques (i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 57%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Mapping site amplification with the dense recording of ambient vibration for the city of Lucerne (Switzerland) – comparison between two approaches

Janusz,

Panzera,

Bergamo

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Reliable site-specific amplification information can be retrieved using earthquake-based methods, involving the deployment of seismic networks, which, however, may need to operate for years. Hence, time- and cost-effective approaches using ambient vibrations are gaining popularity. Among such techniques, the hybrid standard spectral ratio method (SSRh) uses simultaneous recordings of ambient vibrations translated into a prediction of local seismic response with a limited number of instrumented sites with earthquake ground-motion data. The canonical correlation approach (CC) collates measured empirical amplification with its proxy computed from ambient vibrations (horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios, HVSRn) at a training set of seismic stations, to predict site response at points without earthquake recordings. We apply both methods in the Lucerne area (Switzerland), located on a soft sedimentary basin, obtaining consistent results, comparable to amplification estimates from earthquake ground motions. The resulting linear amplification factors are significant (factor of 8–10 or more) at the fundamental frequency of resonance of the sediments (0.8-2 Hz). However, both techniques show systematic differences in the spatial and frequency domains. The CC method tends to underestimate the amplification at the fundamental frequency, while SSRh predicts higher amplification factors in the center and lower at the basin edges in comparison to the CC approach. The study discusses the impact of limited completeness of the calibration dataset, and variability introduced by factors like Vs30 model choice and inelastic behavior treatment for the CC method, as well as the influence of the measurement setup for the SSRh method.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 57%

“…Moreover, the significant amplification factors as well as the high population (about 2200 people/km 2 ) and infrastructure density significantly contribute to the seismic risk in which the city of Lucerne is ranked 4 th in Switzerland (Wiemer et al 2023;Papadopoulos et al 2023).…”

Section: Geological Settingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping site amplification with the dense recording of ambient vibration for the city of Lucerne (Switzerland) – comparison between two approaches

Janusz,

Panzera,

Bergamo

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The results have shown great potential for such audio-visual data to enhance understanding of human behavior under emergency scenarios. Also, the results and insights can be further used for improving the design of earthquake early-warning systems 18 , 59 . In short, this study can provide a foundation for emergency managers, policymakers, and safety professionals to develop more effective protective-action recommendations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling protective action decision-making in earthquakes by using explainable machine learning and video data

Zhang,

Zhao,

Baldwin

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Earthquakes pose substantial threats to communities worldwide. Understanding how people respond to the fast-changing environment during earthquakes is crucial for reducing risks and saving lives. This study aims to study people’s protective action decision-making in earthquakes by leveraging explainable machine learning and video data. Specifically, this study first collected real-world CCTV footage and video postings from social media platforms, and then identified and annotated changes in the environment and people’s behavioral responses during the M7.1 2018 Anchorage earthquake. By using the fully annotated video data, we applied XGBoost, a widely-used machine learning method, to model and forecast people’s protective actions (e.g., drop and cover, hold on, and evacuate) during the earthquake. Then, explainable machine learning techniques were used to reveal the complex, nonlinear relationships between different factors and people’s choices of protective actions. Modeling results confirm that social and environmental cues played critical roles in affecting the probability of different protective actions. Certain factors, such as the earthquake shaking intensity and number of people shown in the environment, displayed evident nonlinear relationships with the probability of choosing to evacuate. These findings can help emergency managers and policymakers design more effective protective action recommendations during earthquakes.

show abstract

“…Missed alert Non-associated event (= missing earthquake) to a strategic alerting strategy to consider damage. We believe that developing a damage-based strategic evaluation technique holds practical significance (Iervolino et al, 2011;Papadopoulos et al, 2023). The KMA is also engaged in the development and experimentation of on-site EEW systems based on IM (Ahn et al, 2023).…”

Section: Isn Osnmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing network-based earthquake early warning systems in low-seismicity areas

Ahn,

Cho,

Hwang

et al. 2023

Front. Earth Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Earthquake early warning (EEW) technology, designed to alert the public of earthquake risks after initial P-wave detection but before the onset of strong tremors, has developed rapidly. Methodologies from various fields are combined in EEW systems to estimate earthquake locations, magnitudes, and expected intensities based on the initial P-wave data. These systems operate automatically because prompt responses are required. However, as no common evaluation framework for EEW system verification exists, potentially divergent evaluations from reviewers or countries could ensue. Moreover, evaluating EEW systems is more complicated when the target area does not experience frequent earthquakes. We aimed to establish a guidance review process for low-seismicity areas to ensure reliable and stable integrated EEW system operation. We incorporated management aspects through actual system operator surveillance and designed an EEW assessment process based on feedback from our surveys. Using this approach, we created a comprehensive and well-informed evaluation process that considers the diverse perspectives of experts involved in EEWs. Our proposed assessment method allows for a uniform and consistent evaluation process, regardless of changes in the methods or technologies used by EEW systems. The method aims to guide EEW system assessments in low-seismicity areas.

show abstract

A framework to quantify the effectiveness of earthquake early warning in mitigating seismic risk

Cited by 10 publications

References 65 publications

Mapping site amplification with the dense recording of ambient vibration for the city of Lucerne (Switzerland) – comparison between two approaches

Mapping site amplification with the dense recording of ambient vibration for the city of Lucerne (Switzerland) – comparison between two approaches

Modeling protective action decision-making in earthquakes by using explainable machine learning and video data

Assessing network-based earthquake early warning systems in low-seismicity areas

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About