A Free Lunch with Influence Functions? Improving Neural Network Estimates with Concepts from Semiparametric Statistics

Abstract

Parameter estimation in the empirical fields is usually undertaken using parametric models, and such models are convenient because they readily facilitate statistical inference. Unfortunately, they are unlikely to have a sufficiently flexible functional form to be able to adequately model realworld phenomena, and their usage may therefore result in biased estimates and invalid inference. Unfortunately, whilst non-parametric machine learning models may provide the needed flexibility to adapt to the complexity of realworld phenomena, they do not readily facilitate statistical inference, and may still exhibit residual bias. We explore the potential for semiparametric theory (in particular, the Influence Function) to be used to improve neural networks and machine learning algorithms in terms of (a) improving initial estimates without needing more data (b) increasing the robustness of our models, and (c) yielding confidence intervals for statistical inference. We propose a new neural network method 'MultiNet', which seeks the flexibility and diversity of an ensemble using a single architecture. Results on causal inference tasks indicate that MultiNet yields better performance than other approaches, and that all considered methods are amenable to improvement from semiparametric techniques under certain conditions. In other words, with these techniques we show that we can improve existing neural networks for 'free', without needing more data, and without needing to retrain them. Finally, we provide the expression for deriving influence functions for estimands from a general graph, and the code to do so automatically.