A Frozen Venezuela? The Resource Curse and Russian Politics

Tompson, William

doi:10.7135/upo9781843317555.010

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…15 To these factors we must add other considerations, more political than economic. In this sense, the most far-reaching criticism has been that expressed by authors such as Tompson (2006), who suspects that energy policy is nothing more than a set of jumbled decisions, with no strategic sense, beneath which lies a struggle for political and economic power between the old Yel'tsin elite (built up through the financial sector) and the new Putin elite (of administrative origin). Even more critical of this policy are those who argue that the state's direct involvement in organising the sector will lead to inefficiency in resource management and a lack of incentives for investments guided by the search for firm profitability (Milov et al 2006, p. 307).…”

Section: New Drivers For Investmentsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Some Scenarios for Russian Oil Exports up to 2020

Fernández

2009

Europe-Asia Studies

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This article analyses the potential for Russian oil export growth through the next decade. It concludes that supply for exports will continue to grow, albeit moderately. The greater or lesser intensity of that growth will depend on the evolution of both production and internal consumption, and especially on the reaction by investors to sector changes promoted by government energy policy. From this analysis, we find three likely scenarios for Russian oil exports. The most positive envisages it will be possible to diversify exports while the most negative suggests that Russia will have scant opportunity to develop an export diversification strategy. AN ASSESSMENT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR GROWTH IN Russian oil exports depends on an analysis of the following components. From the production side, the pace of growth depends on the status of oil reserves and, more importantly, on the reaction by investors to sector changes promoted by the Russian government's energy policy. From the demand side, evolution depends on the net result between push factors (transport development and changes in relative prices) and restraining drivers (structural change and greater energy efficiency). From the analysis of each of these components, we find three likely scenarios for Russian oil exports. In the most positive, foreign sales will be strong enough to develop a strategy that combines expansion of trade to Europe with greater penetration into major East Asian markets. In the most negative, despite further increase in sales abroad, Russia will have little opportunity to develop an export diversification strategy.The article is structured as follows. First, we review the developments that have followed oil production, consumption and exports since the disintegration of the USSR. Second, we look at the supply side, paying particular attention to changes in energy policy and to the investment strategies of oil companies. Third, we evaluate the potential of domestic consumption to maintain a low-growth path. Fourth, we present three main scenarios for export growth, derived from the above analysis. Finally, we explore how much room will be left by export growth for developing different geographic diversification strategies.

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Section: New Drivers For Investmentsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Some Scenarios for Russian Oil Exports up to 2020

Fernández

2009

Europe-Asia Studies

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“…The existing record testifies to the contrary. In recent years the rentier state theory, besides the Middle East region, has been applied to other areas of the world, including sub-Saharan Africa (Yates 1996;Clark 1997;Frynas 2004; Soares de Oliveira 2007a), South America (Karl 1997) and more recently to post-Soviet Central Asia (Ishiyama 2002;Kuru 2002;Franke et al 2009;Ostrowski 2011a) and Russia (Luong 2000;Kim 2003;Rudiger 2005;Goorha 2006;Tompson 2006;Wood 2007). At the same time, existing criticism of resource curse studies and the emergence of state capitalism make clear the need for a new research project that looks much more closely at questions of development in connection to companies that are vital to state capitalism, most importantly, the National Oil Companies and State-Owned Enterprises.…”

Section: The Next Steps For Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Resources

2013

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“…This rent-seeking behavior with resulting low GDP growth is a typical symptom of resource-rich countries and generally referred to as ''the resource curse'' (see for example [61]. Although the resource curse tends to be more obvious for non-renewable point resources such as minerals and oil, four factors influencing the magnitude of the ''curse'' suggest that fisheries in general and fishing agreements in specific can be characterized as a case of a resource curse: weak property rights, unstable institutions and the capital-intensive nature of resource extraction [62], as well as the foreign aid character of government fees [63].…”

Section: The Logic Behind Host Countries 0 Contracting Strategiesmentioning

confidence: 99%