A Full Annual Cycle Modeling Framework for American Black Ducks

Robinson, Orin J.; McGowan, Conor P.; Devers, Patrick K.; Brook, Rodney W.; Huang, Min; Jones, M. Tildon; McAuley, Daniel G.; Zimmerman, Guthrie S.

doi:10.1111/nrm.12088

Cited by 14 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…, Robinson et al. ), but application of these frameworks to other migratory species has been hindered by the inability to track individuals throughout the annual cycle, missing information on the linkages between breeding and wintering populations (i.e., migratory connectivity), and the lack of demographic monitoring data on the wintering grounds.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal drivers of avian population dynamics across the annual cycle

Rushing

Hostetler

Sillett

et al. 2017

Ecology

129

113

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Untangling the spatial and temporal processes that influence population dynamics of migratory species is challenging, because changes in abundance are shaped by variation in vital rates across heterogeneous habitats and throughout the annual cycle. We developed a full-annual-cycle, integrated, population model and used demographic data collected between 2011 and 2014 in southern Indiana and Belize to estimate stage-specific vital rates of a declining migratory songbird, the Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina). Our primary objective was to understand how spatial and temporal variation in demography contributes to local and regional population growth. Our full-annual-cycle model allowed us to estimate (1) age-specific, seasonal survival probabilities, including latent survival during both spring and autumn migration, and (2) how the relative contribution of vital rates to population growth differed among habitats. Wood Thrushes in our study populations experienced the lowest apparent survival rates during migration and apparent survival was lower during spring migration than during fall migration. Both mortality and high dispersal likely contributed to low apparent survival during spring migration. Population growth in high-quality habitat was most sensitive to variation in fecundity and apparent survival of juveniles during spring migration, whereas population growth in low-quality sites was most sensitive to adult apparent breeding-season survival. These results elucidate how full-annual-cycle vital rates, particularly apparent survival during migration, interact with spatial variation in habitat quality to influence population dynamics in migratory species.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal drivers of avian population dynamics across the annual cycle

Rushing

Hostetler

Sillett

et al. 2017

Ecology

129

113

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“…Full-annual-cycle population-projection (FAC-PP) models offer a useful framework for studying such linkages and for conducting population viability analysis (PVA) 41 . They offer specification of density dependence 19,21 and carry-over effects 42 when making population-level predictions about the consequences of changing habitat conditions throughout the annual cycle of a migratory species. Deterministic FAC-PP models allow researchers to focus on shifts in central tendency and to identify key hypotheses to be tested with more intensive approaches that account for environmental and demographic stochasticity.…”

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confidence: 99%

Linking landscape-scale conservation to regional and continental outcomes for a migratory species

Mattsson

Devries

Dubovsky

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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Land-use intensification on arable land is expanding and posing a threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. We develop methods to link funding for avian breeding habitat conservation and management at landscape scales to equilibrium abundance of a migratory species at the continental scale. We apply this novel approach to a harvested bird valued by birders and hunters in north America, the northern pintail duck (Anas acuta), a species well below its population goal. Based on empirical observations from 2007-2016, habitat conservation investments for waterfowl cost $313 M and affected <2% of the pintail's primary breeding area in the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada. Realistic scenarios for harvest and habitat conservation costing an estimated $588 M (2016 USD) led to predicted pintail population sizes <3 M when assuming average parameter values. Accounting for parameter uncertainty, converting 70-100% of these croplands to idle grassland (cost: $35.7B-50B) is required to achieve the continental population goal of 4 M individuals under the current harvest policy. Using our work as a starting point, we propose continued development of modeling approaches that link conservation funding, habitat delivery, and population response to better integrate conservation efforts and harvest management of economically important migratory species. The expansion of intensive agriculture threatens the diversity of species 1-4 and ecosystem services 5 associated with arable landscapes. Growing demands for food, feed, fuel, and fiber have precipitated such land-use intensification in these and other landscapes worldwide 6,7. Substantial evidence shows that people benefit from high levels of biodiversity through many associated ecosystem services including food security, water quality, and recreation 8,9. Birds are valued by the general public and recreationists, including birders and hunters in the case of game species 10-12. Some grassland and farmland birds have undergone especially steep declines tied to intensifying agricultural practices 13. Many of these populations comprise individuals undertaking annual long-distance movements between breeding and wintering grounds often spanning multiple countries 14,15. International funds for conserving critical habitats at the landscape scale in North America are essential for maintaining these populations 16,17 and these resources vary over time 18. This conservation challenge begs the question of how shifts in funding and resultant changes in landscape composition might affect migratory birds. Important advances have been made in modeling impacts of habitat changes on migratory birds at regional and continental scales. Existing approaches have important limitations, however. Some lack landscape-level scenarios for habitat conservation 19-21 , while others focus on hypothetical species 22. Case studies most commonly lack predicted changes in species-specific abundance, predicting instead shifts in community-level metrics 23,24 or indices of habitat suitability 25-27. Spec...

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“…More recently, studies have used diverse modeling approaches to quantify effects of habitat perturbations on changes in migratory population size. In increasing order of complexity, these include migratory network models (Taylor and Norris 2010;Wiederholt et al 2013), deterministic population models (Mattsson et al 2012;Robinson et al 2016), stochastic projection matrices (Brown et al 2017), migratory flow networks (Iwamura et al 2013;Taylor et al 2016), and integrated population models (Morrison et al 2016;Oberhauser et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the Contribution of Habitats and Pathways to a Spatially Structured Population Facing Environmental Change

Sample

Bieri

Allen

et al. 2020

The American Naturalist

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Online enhancements: supplemental PDF.abstract: The consequences of environmental disturbance and management are difficult to quantify for spatially structured populations because changes in one location carry through to other areas as a result of species movement. We develop a metric, G, for measuring the contribution of a habitat or pathway to network-wide population growth rate in the face of environmental change. This metric is different from other contribution metrics, as it quantifies effects of modifying vital rates for habitats and pathways in perturbation experiments. Perturbation treatments may range from small degradation or enhancement to complete habitat or pathway removal. We demonstrate the metric using a simple metapopulation example and a case study of eastern monarch butterflies. For the monarch case study, the magnitude of environmental change influences the ordering of node contribution. We find that habitats within which all individuals reside during one season are the most important to short-term network growth under complete removal scenarios, whereas the central breeding region contributes most to population growth over all but the strongest disturbances. The metric G provides for more efficient management interventions that proactively mitigate impacts of expected disturbances to spatially structured populations.

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A Full Annual Cycle Modeling Framework for American Black Ducks

Cited by 14 publications

References 30 publications

Spatial and temporal drivers of avian population dynamics across the annual cycle

Spatial and temporal drivers of avian population dynamics across the annual cycle

Linking landscape-scale conservation to regional and continental outcomes for a migratory species

Quantifying the Contribution of Habitats and Pathways to a Spatially Structured Population Facing Environmental Change

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