A fuzzy set approach for event tree analysis

Article citation info: DUAN R, ZHOU H, FAN J. Diagnosis strategy for complex systems based on reliability analysis and MADM under epistemic uncertainty. Eksploatacja i Niezawodnosc -Maintenance and Reliability 2015; 17 (3): 345-354, http://dx.doi.org/10.17531/ein.2015.3.4. Rongxing DUAN Huilin ZHOU Jinghui FAN Diagnosis strategy for complex systems baseD on reliability analysis anD maDm unDer epistemic uncertainty strategia Diagnostyki Dla systemów złożonych oparta na analizie niezawoDności oraz metoDach wieloatrybutowego poDejmowania Decyzji maDm w warunkach niepewności epistemologicznej Fault tolerant technology has greatly improved the reliability of train-ground wireless communication system (TWCS). However, its high reliability caused the lack of sufficient fault data and epistemic uncertainty, which increased significantly challenges in system diagnosis. A novel diagnosis method for TWCS is proposed to deal with these challenges in this paper, which makes the best of reliability analysis, fuzzy sets theory and MADM. Specifically, it adopts dynamic fault tree to model their dynamic fault modes and evaluates the failure rates of the basic events using fuzzy sets theory and expert elicitation to hand epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, it calculates some quantitative parameters information provided by reliability analysis using algebraic technique and Bayesian network to overcome some disadvantages of the traditional methods. Diagnostic importance factor, sensitivity index and heuristic information values are considered comprehensively to obtain the optimal diagnostic ranking order of TWCS using an improved TOPSIS. The proposed method takes full advantages of the dynamic fault tree for modelling, fuzzy sets theory for handling uncertainty and MADM for the best fault search scheme, which is especially suitable for fault diagnosis of the complex systems. Keywords: Train-ground wireless communication system, Reliability analysis, MADM, Epistemic uncertainty, TOPSIS. Technologia odporna na błędy przyczyniła się do dużej poprawy niezawodności systemów łączności bezprzewodowej pociąg-ziemia (TWCS). IntroductionTrain-ground wireless communication system (TWCS) is a safety-critical subsystem of urban rail transit and its reliability has a direct effect on the stability and safety of the train operation system. For fast technology innovation, the performance of TWCS has been greatly improved with the wide application of high dependability safeguard techniques on one hand, but on the other hand, its complexity of technology and structure increasing significantly raise challenges in system maintenance and diagnosis. These challenges are shown as follows.(1) Lack of sufficient fault samples. Fault samples integrity has a significant influence on the system diagnostic performance.However, it is extremely difficult to obtain mass fault samples which need many case studies in practice due to some reasons. One reason is imprecise knowledge in an early stage of the new product design. The other factor is the changes of th...

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“…There are many approaches to aggregate fuzzy numbers. An appealing approach is the linear opinion pool [6]:…”

Section: Fuzzification Modulementioning

confidence: 99%

Diagnosis strategy for complex systems based on reliability analysis and MADM under epistemic uncertainty

Duan

Zhou

Jiang

2015

EiN

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“…Some fuzzy proposals have been inspired in the classical risk assessment methods, such as, ETA and FTA: Fujino (1994) demonstrates the applicability of the proposed fuzzy FTA methodology to some cases of construction site accidents in Japan; Huang (2001) proposes a fuzzy formal procedure in order to integrate both human-error and hardware failure events into a ETA methodology; Cho (2002) proposes a fuzzy ETA methodology characterized by the use of new forms of fuzzy membership curves.…”

Section: Fuzzy Risk Assessment Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 99%

A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment

Nieto-Morote

Ruz-Vila

2011

International Journal of Project Management

372

160

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“…Some researchers attempted to integrate FST into risk assessment process. They focus mainly on the improvement of the efficiency of the conventional risk assessment tools, though rather new tools have been proposed by Huang et al (2001) and Cho et al (2002). Using the risk hierarchical breakdown structure, Tah and Carr (2000) proposed a fuzzy qualitative risk assessment model, where experts' subjective judgments were captured within the model to assess the risk impact.…”

Section: Fuzzy Logic and Fst In Construction Risk Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Design and Pilot Run of Fuzzy Synthetic Model (Fsm) for Risk Evaluation in Civil Engineering

Abdul‐Rahman

Chen

Lee

2013

Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

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Abstract. Most of the current construction risk assessment tools deliver unsatisfactory results because the prerequisite for their effective applications rely on the availability of high quality data especially during the early stage of a project. Unfortunately, such data are limited, ambiguous or even not exist due to the great uncertainty inherent in construction projects. Based on Fuzzy Synthetic Analysis (FSA), a model development team was formed among construction engineers, IT professionals, and Mathematicians in developing a holistic risk assessment model to estimate the construction risks especially for the situations with incomplete data and vague environments. Through qualitative scales defined by triangular fuzzy numbers used in pairwise comparisons to capture the vagueness in the linguistic variables, a risk assessment model using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was developed. The Pilot Run revealed the developed Fuzzy Synthetic Model (FSM) could accelerate the decisionmaking process and provide optimal allocation of project resources to mitigate possible risks detrimental to the success of a project in terms of time, cost, and quality.

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A fuzzy set approach for event tree analysis

Cited by 160 publications

References 23 publications

Diagnosis strategy for complex systems based on reliability analysis and MADM under epistemic uncertainty

Diagnosis strategy for complex systems based on reliability analysis and MADM under epistemic uncertainty

A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment

Design and Pilot Run of Fuzzy Synthetic Model (Fsm) for Risk Evaluation in Civil Engineering

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