A Game-theoretic Analysis of Hybrid Threats

Balcaen, Pieter; Bois, Cindy Du; Buts, Caroline

doi:10.1080/10242694.2021.1875289

Cited by 13 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…While game theoretic approaches have gained traction in the hybrid domain [18] and the cyber domain [19], and dynamic Bayesian Network modelling has been used for hybrid threat modelling [21], our work is the first that encodes the uncertainties specific to the hybrid domain as probabilistic relations. In addition, as most research on the costs, deterrence -and mitigation ability of counter-hybrid measures is scattered across different domains, we have posed a method to aggregate these different findings via probability distributions to account for the lack of consensus in the literature.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The model considers the behaviour of two agents possessing the characteristics of sovereign states, following the two-agent approach of [18] and [19]. On one side, agent A aims to pursue its strategic objectives using hybrid attacks.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While attempting to model hybrid threat dynamics, some authors have resorted to game theory to examine strategic interactions among rival states in an effort to overcome the paucity of information available [18], [19]. Others have incorporated scarce data sources into Bayesian modelling techniques [20], [21] with the aim to refine domain knowledge with available data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Bayesian Network Approach to Hybrid Threat Modelling

Vonk,

Sweijs,

Minicozzi

2024

Preprint

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Western governments have adopted an assortment of counter-hybrid threat measures to defend against hostile actions below the conventional military threshold. The impact of these measures is unclear because of the ambiguity of hybrid threats, their cross-domain nature, and uncertainty about how countermeasures shape adversarial behaviour. This paper presents a model to simulate the impact of countermeasures on hybrid threat behaviour through a Bayesian Network approach - a probabilistic modelling technique. The model balances the costs of countermeasures, their ability to dissuade the adversary from executing hybrid threats, and their potential to mitigate the impact of hybrid threats. We run 1000 variants of a semi-synthetic scenario simulating the strategic interaction between attacking agent A and defending agent B over a cyber attack on critical infrastructure to explore the effectiveness of a set of five different counter-hybrid threat measures. Counter-hybrid measures range from strengthening resilience and denial of the adversary's ability to execute a hybrid threat to dissuasion through the threat of punishment. Our analysis primarily evaluates the overarching characteristics of counter-hybrid threat measures This approach allows us to generalize the effectiveness of these measures, rather than attributing results to measures individually. In addition, we discuss policy relevance and outline future research avenues.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Bayesian Network Approach to Hybrid Threat Modelling

Vonk,

Sweijs,

Minicozzi

2024

Preprint

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“…Information policy includes such issues as net neutrality, filtering, intellectual property, Digital technological developments and their growing interconnection with changes in social relations have allowed some states to challenge unfriendly countries using so-called "hybrid threats" -coordinated and synchronized actions, that specifically target the vulnerabilities of states and institutions through various online platforms (Dragos et al, 2020). This method of warfare entails the use of a wide range of well-designed tools that remain below the thresholds of detection, attribution and retaliation (Balcaen et al, 2022). Disinformation campaigns result in undermining vulnerable places of democracy, such as freedom of speech, and freedom of the media, exacerbating existing ethnic, religious, political or economic differences, which leads to decreased social cohesion (Wigell, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved Planning of Information Policy in the Cyber Security Sphere under Conditions of Hybrid Threats

et al. 2022

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The study aimed to consider the current state of planning information policy in the field of cybersecurity under intensified hybrid threats, using the methods of comparison and observation. The study conducted showed that in the face of intensified hybrid threats, states must develop common approaches to implement state information policy and ensure information cybersecurity. In the face of Russia's hidden and direct aggression, governments should develop an effective system for implementing national information policies to ensure information security and introduce new state structures and mechanisms for timely detection and neutralization of threats to national interests in the sphere of information security. It concludes on the need to counter the destructive behavior of states using hybrid threats at the national and supranational levels and explains the low level of information protection in individual states and international institutions. The European Union and NATO can play a key supporting role and offer support where national responses to cybersecurity threats have proved insufficient.

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“…This approach has found many applications in cybersecurity [27]. In security management, it can model different conflicts, for example, modeling mixed threats and as a tool for warfare [28]. Another example is modeling the response to the disclosure of additional security measures, for example, with new technologies used in airport controls and the response to it by terrorists [29].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling and Simulation as Tools to Increase the Protection of Critical Infrastructure and the Sustainability of the Provision of Essential Needs of Citizens

2021

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States and their cities are at the forefront of efforts to address many of today’s transnational security challenges. States cannot fulfill their basic functions, which include caring for the all-round development of their territory and the needs of its inhabitants, without the existence of critical infrastructure, which can be damaged, destroyed, or disrupted by malicious behavior. The legislation of EU authorities presents methods for improving the crisis management cycle within critical infrastructure protection. However, these methods are not elaborated. Modeling and simulation using software tools enable more accurate decision-making by security managers during the process of designing and evaluating the physical protection systems of critical infrastructure. This article presents a new software solution to the intrusion of unauthorized persons and its potential mathematical extension. The main innovative benefit of this newly created software tool is the possibility of creating more sophisticated attack scenarios using various 2D maps. Mathematical extension model response scenarios are constructed for various types of intruders, allowing more accurate training of defenders, which leads to more effective resource usage. This combination of software and mathematical solutions should allow physical protection system designers to test various intrusion scenarios of critical infrastructure elements.

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A Game-theoretic Analysis of Hybrid Threats

Cited by 13 publications

References 24 publications

A Bayesian Network Approach to Hybrid Threat Modelling

A Bayesian Network Approach to Hybrid Threat Modelling

Improved Planning of Information Policy in the Cyber Security Sphere under Conditions of Hybrid Threats

Modeling and Simulation as Tools to Increase the Protection of Critical Infrastructure and the Sustainability of the Provision of Essential Needs of Citizens

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