A Game-Theoretic Model of International Influenza Vaccination Coordination

Abstract

Influenza vaccination decisions in one country can influence the size of an outbreak in other countries due to interdependent risks from infectious disease transmission. This paper examines the inefficiency in the allocation of influenza vaccines that is due to interdependent risk of infection across borders and proposes a contractual mechanism to reduce such inefficiencies. The proposed contract is based on an epidemic model that accounts for intranational transmission and that from a source country where the dominant strain emerges. The contract reduces the overall financial burden of infection globally and improves the total number infected by seasonal influenza outbreaks. This is consistent with recent recommendations to improve pandemic preparedness. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the benefits of the contract can prevent millions of influenza cases and save tens of millions of dollars, and that the benefits are even greater when cross-border transmission is higher, even if cross-border transmission parameters have moderate estimation errors. This paper was accepted by Martin Lariviere, operations management.

Dose‐Optimal Vaccine Allocation over Multiple Populations

“…On the other hand, if vaccines are stockpiled locally, redistributing vaccines might lead to coordination problems (cf., Mamani et al. ). Further research could study the logistical consequences of vaccine allocation.…”

“…() and Mamani et al. () derive their results for sufficiently small between‐country transmission rates. In the latter paper this is specified as the assumption that β ij β jk ≈ 0.…”

Predicting the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on global supply chains: A simulation-based analysis on the coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) case

“…While the research on coping with epidemic outbreaks from the humanitarian logistics point of view provides a mature body of knowledge (Lee et al, 2009, Koyuncu and Erol, 2010, Dasaklis et al, 2012, Green, 2012, Mamani et al, 2013, Altay and Pal, 2014, Altay et al, 2018, Anparasan and Lejeune, 2018, Dubey et al, 2019c, Farahani et al, 2020, the literature on analyzing the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on the commercial SCs is scarce. We consider this as a research gap and an opportunity to develop substantial contributions.…”

OM Forum—Healthcare Operations Management: A Snapshot of Emerging Research

“…For example, the concept of "delayed differentiation" in the operations management literature (e.g., Tang 1997, Swaminathan andTayur 1998) entails creatively revamping the business model of a manufacturer or service provider such that it focuses on the generic parts and does not commit to custom options until the last stages. If we view healthcare delivery as a supply-chain design problem, society has a choice in terms of the timing of offering common services (preventive care, screening, and Alizamir et al (2013); Angalakudati et al (2014); Ata et al (2017); Bertsimas et al (2013); ; Deo and Sohoni (2015); Deo et al (2013); ; Huh et al (2013); Mamani et al (2013); Natarajan and Swaminathan (2014); Sandikçi et al (2013) MeT2: Design of Delivery Gawande (2010aGawande ( , 2011aGawande ( , 2012; Makary (2013); Weick and Sutcliffe (2015) Berwick et al (2006); Blumenthal (1996);Brook et al (1996); Donabedian (1988); Grol and Grimshaw (2003); Newman-Toker and Pronovost (2009) health-related activities) and custom services (diagnostic and treatment services) to the population. Inspired by the concept of "delayed differentiation," Thompson et al (2018) empirically demonstrate the improvement in the value of care through implementing "temporal displacement of care" with a panel of 45,000 patients in Vermont, with an objective of shifting costly diagnostic and treatment services offered to sick patients to more intensive preventive services offered to healthy individuals.…”