Abstract. This study proposes a novel data-driven analytical framework to determine optimal allocation and conjunctive strategies of blue and virtual water transfers in the presence of different hydrological and economic conditions. Due to the water scarcity and uneven distribution, a Stackelberg–Nash–Harsanyi equilibrium model is developed to cope with the hierarchical conflict between the water affairs bureau and multiple water usage sectors. Results show that coalitional strategy of blue and virtual water transfers can substantially save water and improve utilization efficiency without harming sectors' benefits and increasing ecological stresses. Under various polices, we use data-driven analysis to simulate hydrological and economic parameters, such as available water, crop import price, water market price etc. Different results obtained through adjusting hydrological and economic parameters show that the optimal allocation and transfer strategy is more sensitive to hydrological factor instead of economic factor. Moreover, the results prove that conjunctive blue/virtual water transfers can response to market fluctuation. Ultimately, the proposed framework can achieve a sustainable management for physical and virtual water supply system under future hydrological and economic uncertainty.