A gauge-based sub-daily extreme rainfall climatology for western Europe

Whitford, Anna; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Pritchard, David; Fowler, Hayley J.

doi:10.1016/j.wace.2023.100585

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 48 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The percentage of events under each WP 9 in autumn in Portugal is shown in Figure S1 and this also shows the strong peak in WP29. The significantly higher number of events recorded in Catalonia is partly due to the fact 40mm represents a lower part of the distribution here (Whitford et al, 2023) and also that the denser gauge network enables more events to be captured.…”

Section: Wps Associated With 3hr Rainfall Events Over 40mm Thresholdmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…We focus our analysis on the summer season (JJA) only, as the highest frequency of 3-hour events above 40-mm occur during summer in western Europe (Whitford et al, 2023).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, this threshold represents potentially impactful events across the region under investigation. The variation in sub-daily extreme rainfall distribution between northern and southern Europe (Whitford et al, 2023) means some regions have many more events over the threshold than others, a factor which should also be taken into consideration when examining the results. Finally, events above the threshold are declustered by keeping only the largest 3hr event per gauge per day.…”

Section: Rainfall Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Atmospheric patterns associated with sub-daily rainfall extremes in western Europe

Whitford,

Blenkinsop,

Fowler

2023

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Large-scale atmospheric conditions are a significant driver of rainfall extremes. However, little attention so far has been devoted to understanding how large-scale circulation patterns influence sub-daily rainfall extremes. Using a gauge-based sub-daily rainfall dataset, we investigate the relationship between large-scale circulation and 3-hour extremes for western Europe. A set of 30 weather patterns (WPs) developed by the UK Met Office and reanalysis data of geopotential height at 500hPa (z500) are used to represent large-scale atmospheric conditions. Strong associations with 3hr extremes are found for a small number of WPs: over 50% of 3hr rainfall extremes across Western Europe occur with just 5 WPs. Composites of z500 reveal the WPs resulting in southerly or south-westerly flow along the leading edge of a trough, accompanied by a ridge to the east or northeast, are most favourable for sub-daily rainfall extremes, with a statistically-significant difference between the atmospheric conditions on WP + sub-daily rainfall extreme event days compared to WP non-event days. Given that large-scale circulations are predictable much further in advance than individual extreme rainfall events, these identified relationships could therefore have important implications for forecasting, aiding in the early identification of periods with increased risk of short-duration rainfall extremes.

show abstract

Section: Wps Associated With 3hr Rainfall Events Over 40mm Thresholdmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…We focus our analysis on the summer season (JJA) only, as the highest frequency of 3-hour events above 40-mm occur during summer in western Europe (Whitford et al, 2023).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Rainfall Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Atmospheric patterns associated with sub-daily rainfall extremes in western Europe

Whitford,

Blenkinsop,

Fowler

2023

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Atmospheric patterns associated with summer sub-daily rainfall extremes in western Europe

Whitford,

Blenkinsop,

Fowler

2024

Clim Dyn

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Large-scale atmospheric circulations are a significant driver of rainfall extremes. However, little attention has so far been devoted to understanding how large-scale circulation patterns influence sub-daily rainfall extremes. Using a gauge-based sub-daily rainfall dataset, we investigate the relationship between large-scale circulations and 3-hour extremes (defined here as ≥ 40 mm rainfall in 3 h) for western Europe. A set of 30 weather patterns (WPs) developed by the UK Met Office and reanalysis data of geopotential height at 500 hPa (z500) are used to represent large-scale atmospheric conditions. Strong associations with 3-hour extremes are found for a small number of WPs: over 50% of 3-hour rainfall extremes across Western Europe occur with just 5 WPs. Composites of z500 reveal the WPs resulting in southerly or south-westerly flow along the leading edge of a trough, accompanied by a ridge to the east or northeast, are most favourable for sub-daily rainfall extremes, with a statistically significant difference between the atmospheric conditions on WP days with a 3-hour extreme rainfall event compared to WP non-event days. Given that large-scale circulations are predictable much further in advance than individual extreme rainfall events, these identified relationships could therefore have important implications for forecasting, aiding in the early identification of periods with increased risk of short-duration rainfall extremes.

show abstract

Assessing Changes in Exceptional Rainfall in Portugal Using ERA5-Land Reanalysis Data (1981/1982–2022/2023)

Espinosa,

Portela,

Gharbia

2024

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This research examines the intricate changes in the number of occurrences and cumulative rainfall of exceptional events in Portugal spanning 42 hydrological years (from 1981/1982 to 2022/2023). The study has two primary objectives: assessing the hydrological spatial dynamics of a region susceptible to climate-induced variations in exceptional rainfall and evaluating the proficiency of a ERA5-Land reanalysis rainfall dataset in capturing exceptional rainfall. Confronting methodological and data-related challenges (e.g., incomplete record series), the investigation uses continuous daily ERA5-Land rainfall series. Validation against the Sistema Nacional de Informação de Recursos Hídricos (SNIRH) and the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) ensures the reliability of ERA5-Land data. Empirical non-exceedance probability curves reveal a broad consensus between reanalysis data and observational records, establishing the dataset’s suitability for subsequent analysis. Spatial representations of occurrences, cumulative rainfall, and rainfall intensity of events above thresholds throughout the overall 42-year period and two subperiods (late: 1981/1982–2001/2002; and recent: 2002/2003–2022/2023) are presented, illustrating spatial and temporal variations. A noteworthy shift in the spatial distribution of intense events from south to north is observed, emphasising the dynamism of such hydrological processes. The study introduces a novel dimension with a severity heat map, combining some key findings from the occurrences and cumulative rainfall through subperiods. This study significantly contributes to the understanding of hydrological dynamics in Portugal, providing valuable insights for risk management and the development of sustainable strategies tailored to the evolving patterns of exceptional rainfall.

show abstract

A gauge-based sub-daily extreme rainfall climatology for western Europe

Cited by 3 publications

References 48 publications

Atmospheric patterns associated with sub-daily rainfall extremes in western Europe

Atmospheric patterns associated with sub-daily rainfall extremes in western Europe

Atmospheric patterns associated with summer sub-daily rainfall extremes in western Europe

Assessing Changes in Exceptional Rainfall in Portugal Using ERA5-Land Reanalysis Data (1981/1982–2022/2023)

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About