A general pattern of trade-offs between ecosystem resistance and resilience to tropical cyclones

Patrick, Christopher J.; Kominoski, John S.; McDowell, William H.; Branoff, Benjamin L.; Lagomasino, David; Leon, Miguel; Hensel, Enie; Strickland, Bradley A.; Aide, T. Mitchell; Armitage, Anna R.; Campos‐Cerqueira, Marconi; Congdon, Victoria M.; Crowl, Todd A.; Devlin, Donna J.; Douglas, Sarah; Erisman, Brad; Feagin, Rusty A.; Geist, Simon Joscha; Hall, Nathan S.; Hardison, Amber K.; Heithaus, Michael R.; Hogan, J. Aaron; Hogan, J. Derek; Kinard, Sean K.; Kiszka, Jérémy J.; Lin, Teng-Chiu; Lu, Kaijun; Madden, Christopher J.; Montagna, Paul A.; O’Connell, Christine S.; Reese, Brandi Kiel; Reustle, Joseph W.; Robinson, Kelly L.; Rush, Scott A.; Santos, Rolando O.; Schnetzer, Astrid; Smee, Delbert L.; Smith, Rachel S.; Starr, Gregory; Stauffer, Beth; Wetz, Michael S.; Whitman, Elizabeth; Wilson, Sara S.; Xue, Jianhong; Zou, Xiaoming

doi:10.1126/sciadv.abl9155

Cited by 43 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…We highlight that mangrove vulnerability and short-term resilience respond differently to cyclonic impacts in the North Atlantic Basin (NAB) region, which is in line with known trade-offs between ecosystem resistance and resilience to tropical cyclones (Patrick et al, 2022). Mangroves showed low vulnerability (high resistance) to cyclones with only ca.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 70%

Drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience to tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin

Amaral

Poulter

Lagomasino

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The North Atlantic Basin (NAB) is seeing a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones since the 1980s, with record-breaking seasons such as 2017 and 2020. However, little is known about how coastal ecosystems, particularly mangroves in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, are responding to these new climate normals at regional and subregional scales. Wind speed, rainfall, pre-cyclone forest structure, and hydro-geomorphology are known to influence mangrove damage and recovery following cyclones in the NAB. However, these studies have focused on site-specific responses and individual cyclonic events. Here, we analyze 25 years (1996-2020) of mangrove vulnerability (damage after a cyclone) and short-term resilience (recovery after damage) for the entire NAB and its subregions, using multi-annual, remote sensing-derived databases. We applied machine learning to characterize the influence of 22 potential drivers that include previously researched variables and new ones such as human development and long-term climate trends. The characteristics of the cyclones mainly drive vulnerability at the regional level, while resilience is largely driven by site-specific conditions. These include long-term climate conditions, such as air temperature and drought trends, pre-cyclone habitat conditions, such as canopy cover and height and soil organic carbon stock, and human interventions on the land. Rates and drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience vary across subregions in the NAB, and hotspots for restoration and conservation actions are highlighted within subregions. The impacts of increasing cyclone activity need to be framed in the context of climate change compound effects and heavy human influences in the region. There is an urgent need to value the restoration and conservation of mangroves as fundamental Nature-based Solutions against cyclone impacts in the NAB.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 70%

Drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience to tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin

Amaral

Poulter

Lagomasino

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…Such a trade-off is not apparent for angiosperms [7]. Christopher Patrick [37] found that coastal ecosystems display consistent tradeoffs between resistance and resilience to tropical cyclones, and he emphasized that managing for increased resistance may result in decreased resilience, and vice versa. No trade-off between resistance and resilience was found in the temperate steppe of northern China during a 13-year drought period [38].…”

Section: Trade-off Between Resistance and Resiliencementioning

confidence: 99%

Resistance and Resilience of Desert Riparian Communities to Extreme Droughts

Wang

et al. 2022

Forests

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Changes in the resistance, recovery, and resilience of three desert riparian ecosystems to extreme droughts and the influence of ecological characteristics on them from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed within the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China. The results showed that: (1) The resistance of the Populus euphratica forest community was the highest among the three plant communities. The recovery and resilience of the shrub community were the highest; (2) the resilience increased the most for the shrub community and decreased slightly for the Populus euphratica forest and herb communities as hydrological droughts waned; (3) the relative height and density significantly increased for Populus euphratica, decreased for herbs, and did not change for shrubs from 2000 to 2020; (4) the diversity indexes did not significantly change for the Populus euphratica forest and herb communities, and they increased for the shrub community from 2000 to 2020; (5) the resistance and resilience of the Populus euphratica forest, shrub, and herb communities were significantly affected by ecological characteristics, especially the Margalef richness index; and (6) the shrub community is more likely to rapidly recover (that is an increase of cover, height, and density) from future droughts in the Tarim River Basin, particularly with the implementation of new and more effective ecological restoration projects.

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“…This reactive stochastic approach has seeded the literature with unplanned case studies describing individual events. While useful for meta-analyses (eg Patrick et al 2022), such studies provide limited spatiotemporal inference and predictive capacity. Prioritizing the study of extreme events and empirically testing fundamental concepts in disturbance ecology is paramount (Aoki et al 2022).…”

Section: Extreme Event Ecology Needs Proactive Fundingmentioning

confidence: 99%