A genomic and historical synthesis of plague in 18th century Eurasia

Guellil, Meriam; Kersten, Oliver; Namouchi, Amine; Luciani, Stefania; Marota, Isolina; Arcini, Caroline; Iregren, Elisabeth; Lindemann, Robert A.; Warfvinge, Gunnar; Bakanidze, Leila; Bitadze, Liana; Rubini, Mauro; Zaio, Paola; Zaio, Monica; Neri, Dario; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Bramanti, Barbara

doi:10.1073/pnas.2009677117

Cited by 52 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…In order to assess potential differences in the gene composition of the SPN and Lariey plague genomes, we looked at patterns of coverage variation at 207 virulence loci (Figure 4A) (Cui et al, 2013). This approach confirmed the previously described deletion of the mgt and mgtC genes in several second pandemic strains (Spyrou et al, 2019b;Guellil et al, 2020). These deletions were, however, not present in the phylogenetic cluster that included the SPN and Lariey genomes.…”

Section: Genome Evolution In Italysupporting

confidence: 89%

“…In this study, we sequenced two complete plague genomes from individuals who died in the French Alps in 1629-1630 CE. These genomes were phylogenetically closest to those previously characterized in Italy in the following decade (Guellil et al, 2020). This provided us with a unique opportunity to investigate whether or not the pathogen developed a particularly harmful genetic set that could explain the dramatic epidemic striking Italy at the time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 72%

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No particular genomic features underpin the dramatic economic consequences of 17th century plague epidemics in Italy

et al. 2021

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Section: Genome Evolution In Italysupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 72%

No particular genomic features underpin the dramatic economic consequences of 17th century plague epidemics in Italy

et al. 2021

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“…54 Hirst (1953); Appleby (1980); Slack (1981); Antoine (2008) 56 For example, Slack (1981); Frandsen (2010). 57 Guellil et al (2020). 58 Varlık (2019); Cohn (2008); Shakow (2010); Valles et al (2020).…”

Section: Perspectives and Endsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How epidemics end

Charters

Heitman²

2021

Centaurus

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As COVID‐19 drags on and new vaccines promise widespread immunity, the world's attention has turned to predicting how the present pandemic will end. How do societies know when an epidemic is over and normal life can resume? What criteria and markers indicate such an end? Who has the insight, authority, and credibility to decipher these signs? Detailed research on past epidemics has demonstrated that they do not end suddenly; indeed, only rarely do the diseases in question actually end. This article examines the ways in which scholars have identified and described the end stages of previous epidemics, pointing out that significantly less attention has been paid to these periods than to origins and climaxes. Analysis of the ends of epidemics illustrates that epidemics are as much social, political, and economic events as they are biological; the “end,” therefore, is as much a process of social and political negotiation as it is biomedical. Equally important, epidemics end at different times for different groups, both within one society and across regions. Multidisciplinary research into how epidemics end reveals how the end of an epidemic shifts according to perspective, whether temporal, geographic, or methodological. A multidisciplinary analysis of how epidemics end suggests that epidemics should therefore be framed not as linear narratives—from outbreak to intervention to termination—but within cycles of disease and with a multiplicity of endings.

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“…The two main theories are that one or more plague reservoirs remained in Western Europe during the entire Second Plague Pandemic (referred to in the following as Hypothesis 1) (3, 4, 8, 12), or the bacteria repeatedly invaded Europe from non-Western European reservoir(s) during the same period (referred to in the following as Hypothesis 2) (6, 7, 9, 11, 13). Here, we assess these two hypotheses using a broad spectrum of evidence including historical and archeological, genetic and evolutionary, as well as ecological information.…”

Section: Main Textmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the origins of the European Plagues following the Black Death: a synthesis of genomic, historical and ecological information

Bramanti

Yang

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The Second Plague Pandemic started in Europe with the Black Death in 1346 and lasted until the 19th century. Based on ancient DNA studies, there is a scientific disagreement over whether the bacterium, Yersinia pestis, came into Europe once (Hypothesis 1), or repeatedly over the following four centuries (Hypothesis 2). Here we synthesize the most updated phylogeny together with historical, archeological, evolutionary and ecological information. On the basis of this holistic view, we conclude that Hypothesis 2 is the most plausible. We also suggest that Y. pestis lineages might have developed attenuated virulence during transmission, which can explain the convergent evolutionary signals, including pla-decay, that appeared at the end of the pandemics.Significance StatementOver the last few years there has been a great deal of scientific debate regarding whether the plague bacterium, Yersinia pestis, spread from a Western European reservoir during the Second Plague Pandemic, or if it repeatedly came to Europe from Asia. Here we make a synthesis of the available evidence, including genomes of ancient DNA, historical, archeological and ecological information. We conclude that the bacterium most likely came to Europe from Asia several times during the Second Plague Pandemic.

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A genomic and historical synthesis of plague in 18th century Eurasia

Cited by 52 publications

References 71 publications

No particular genomic features underpin the dramatic economic consequences of 17th century plague epidemics in Italy

No particular genomic features underpin the dramatic economic consequences of 17th century plague epidemics in Italy

How epidemics end

Assessing the origins of the European Plagues following the Black Death: a synthesis of genomic, historical and ecological information

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