A Geographical Analysis of Dutch Electoral Volatility 1994–2012

Abstract

In the past two decades, Dutch electoral volatility has been one of the highest in Europe. This study analyses this phenomenon from a geographic perspective. In contrast to the prevalent use of electoral volatility, as a method for comparison of national political systems, the differences within a single national context are examined. Electoral volatility in seven national elections (1994--2012) is calculated at the municipal level. The resulting geographical pattern is mapped, analysed, and explained through the use of (geo-) statistical methods. Significant differences are identified within the country, with particular concentration of high volatility in the south of the country, and low volatility in the north. The results of the research demonstrate the relevance of geography in explaining political behaviour as well as improving the understanding of recent Dutch electoral volatility. Furthermore, the national-scale focus of electoral volatility research is critiqued.