A geographically scaled analysis of adaptation to climate change with spatial models using agricultural systems in Africa

Seo, S. Niggol

doi:10.1017/s0021859611000293

Cited by 39 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…In a livestock‐only enterprise, household heads are on average most educated with 10 years of schooling. This level of education is more than two times larger than 4.7 years of average schooling of farmers in Africa (Seo 2011b). Household heads are on average oldest with 55 years of age in the livestock‐only.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 89%

“…Fourth, adaptation strategies should be designed in consideration of varied ecosystems. This paper reveals that ecosystems in South America are different from those of Africa, for which reason adaptation plans must be designed after careful studies of local ecosystems (Seo 2011b).…”

Section: Summary and Policy Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The surveys were collected from about 2,300 South American households in seven countries across the continent. Using both a standard logit and a spatial logit model, this paper estimates random coefficients and measures the probabilities of different enterprises to be chosen under varying climate conditions (McFadden 1974; Seo 2011b). Actual household choices are explained by climate factors, after controlling other factors such as soils, market access, household characteristics and country specific effects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Latin America, agriculture remains a key sector employing 30-40 per cent of the economically active population and accounting for 20 per cent of the total land areas (Mata and Campos 2001;Magrin et al 2007). Countries should be prepared to adapt to climatic shifts to reduce severe damages by switching to a heat tolerant species and adopting resilient agricultural systems (Smith 1997;Smit et al 2000;Seo and Mendelsohn 2008b;Seo 2010aSeo , 2010bSeo , 2011bSeo et al 2010). However, adaptation measures to be adopted in Latin America should differ from those to be adopted in, for example, Africa since major ecosystems are different in the two continents.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Adaptation behaviours across ecosystems under global warming: A spatial micro‐econometric model of the rural economy in South America

Seo

2012

Papers in Regional Science

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This paper develops a spatial rural economy model of adaptation to climate change that accounts for a multitude of rural enterprises across a diversity of ecosystems in South America using household surveys. We model adoptions of crops, livestock, and forests. Both specialized and diversified enterprises are modelled. This paper finds that livestock, forests, and a diversification into crops, livestock, and forests are key adaptation strategies. Under the UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office) scenario, a livestock‐only enterprise would expand by 4 per cent, a crops‐livestock‐forests by 3 per cent, and a forests‐only by 3 per cent. Adaptation behaviours are closely tied with ecosystem changes under global warming. A livestock‐only would increase especially in the grasslands. A crops‐livestock‐forests enterprise expands into xeromorphic forests. A crops‐livestock expands in Andean grasslands and tall grasslands. A forests‐only expands in the coasts and woody zones. A crops‐only enterprise decreases across South America. Resumen Utilizando encuestas a hogares, en este artículo se desarrolla un modelo espacial de economía rural para la adaptación al cambio climático, con la capacidad de representar una gran cantidad de empresas rurales dentro de una diversidad de ecosistemas en América del Sur. Se modeliza la adopción de cultivos, ganado y bosques. Se modelizan tanto empresas especializadas como diversificadas. El artículo encontró que el ganado, los bosques, y una diversificación en cuanto a cultivos, ganado y bosques son estrategias claves de adaptación. Bajo un escenario propuesto por la Oficina Meteorológica del Reino Unido (UKMO, siglas en inglés), una explotación dedicada solamente a la ganadería aumentaría en un 4 por ciento, una dedicada a cultivos‐ganadería‐bosques un 3 por ciento, y una dedicada exclusivamente a bosques un 3 por ciento. Los comportamientos para la adaptación están estrechamente ligados a cambios en los ecosistemas debidos al calentamiento global. Una explotación exclusivamente ganadera aumentaría especialmente en el ecosistema de pastizal. Una explotación de cultivos‐ganadería‐bosques podría expandir en bosques xeromórficos. Una explotación basada en cultivos‐ganado expandiría en áreas de pastizales Andinos y pastizal alto. Las explotaciones basadas solamente en bosque expandirían en las costas y zonas boscosas. Una explotación exclusivamente de cultivos disminuiría en América del Sur.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 89%

Section: Summary and Policy Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Adaptation behaviours across ecosystems under global warming: A spatial micro‐econometric model of the rural economy in South America

Seo

2012

Papers in Regional Science

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“…An example of adaptation to climatic changes is changes in agricultural and natural resource management practices from crop-based enterprises to grassland-based or forest-based enterprises by natural resource managers (Seo & Mendelsohn, 2008;Seo, 2010Seo, , 2011bSeo, , 2012aSeo, , 2012bSeo, , 2012c. A warming climate will make grasslands and forests more (Ainsworth & Long, 2005).…”

Section: Adaptation Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

A theory of global public goods and their provisions

Seo¹

2016

J Public Affairs

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This paper develops a general theory of a global public good and its optimal provision. In a national public good problem that researchers have long been acquainted with, government taxation and public expenditure are an inevitable tool for an optimal provision. This paper shows that an efficient provision of a truly global public good through public taxation and expenditure becomes unattainable because of nationally disparate incentives, especially given large uncertainties about the future. This paper describes two alternative approaches. One is a technological solution, which is a high promise but has unresolved issues of uncertainties with regard to developments of necessary technologies. The other is an adaptation framework. This paper shows that the provision of a truly global public good becomes manageable through a framework of adaptation strategies as it overcomes both divergent national interests and uncertainties with regard to needed technologies. Adaptation strategies would unfold triggered by changes in private incentives over a long‐term time horizon in a private–public partnership. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Coupling climate risks, eco‐systems, and anthropogenic decisions using South American and Sub‐Saharan farming activities

Seo

2013

Meteorological Applications

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ABSTRACT:This paper provides an analysis of the interplays between climate risks, eco-systems and adaptation decisions using South American and Sub-Saharan African farm surveys. Climate risk indicators such as seasonal Coefficient of Variation in Precipitation (CVP) and Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) are matched with major eco-systems. Adoption decisions of the six natural resource enterprises are modelled using a spatial Logit model. First, this paper finds that climate risks are higher in the grasslands and meadow eco-systems in South America as they are high in the lowland arid zones in Africa. However, climate risks across the continent are, compared with Sub-Saharan Africa, much lower in South America. Second, a higher temperature implies a higher climate risk in Africa, which is not the case in South America owing to the predominant influences of regional weather events such as the ENSO. Third, while the CVP is a dominant risk factor in Africa, the DTR is a dominant risk factor in South America due to the vast ranges of the Andes Mountain. Winter DTR is predicted to fall by 3 • C under both the UKMO and the GISS scenarios by the middle of this century. Altered climate risks will push a large number of farmers to switch away from a crops-only enterprise due to a large decrease in daily temperature variability. Farmers adapt by increasing a crops-livestock enterprise in the grasslands with wood cover and subtropical drought-deciduous forests. This paper provides a coupled analysis of global (climate), local (eco-systems) and individual (adaptation) processes.

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A geographically scaled analysis of adaptation to climate change with spatial models using agricultural systems in Africa

Cited by 39 publications

References 38 publications

Adaptation behaviours across ecosystems under global warming: A spatial micro‐econometric model of the rural economy in South America

Adaptation behaviours across ecosystems under global warming: A spatial micro‐econometric model of the rural economy in South America

A theory of global public goods and their provisions

Coupling climate risks, eco‐systems, and anthropogenic decisions using South American and Sub‐Saharan farming activities

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