A GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Determining Glacier Vulnerability

Abstract

Investigating the causes of the spatial heterogeneity of glacial changes offers vital information about glacial behavior and provides forecasting ability to define where glacier retreat may occur in the future. This study was designed to determine the spatial distribution of Ağrı Mountain glacier vulnerability. The main goal of the current study was to assess the forecasting capabilities of Geographical Information System (GIS)-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for determining the location of the mountain glacier retreat. To estimate the glacier retreat, the following criteria were selected: elevation, aspect, slope, direction, and glacier surface temperature anomaly (GSTA). The entropy method was used for weighting the criteria for the evaluation of the vulnerable areas of the glacier. The results of this method clearly indicate a strong relationship between GSTA, direction, and elevation criteria and glacier retreat. The glacier vulnerability map was created by synthesizing criteria layers with their weights. The vulnerability map provided a consistency of 77.8% in the short term and 92.1% in the long term. In the study, the priority melting zones were determined and glacial retreat locations were forecasted in 10-year periods.

Glacier wastage and its vulnerability in the Qilian Mountains

“…Glacier change vulnerability is derived from the vulnerability to climate change and is generally understood as the sensitivity of various systems to the negative impact of glacier changes, including exposure, sensitivity and adaptability (Ding and Xiao, 2013;Yang et al, 2015). Now the international research on glacier change vulnerability had converted from conceptual and theoretical qualitative analysis to quantitative research, and its research contents mostly focused on: (1) the construction and measurement of glacier change vulnerability assessment system, different scholars scientifically and objectively select assessment factors based upon the characteristics of the study site, and use relevant models to calculate the vulnerability index (Immerzeel et al, 2020;Mustafa, 2020); (2) studies on the vulnerability of different systems to glacier changes, including human-environmental systems, socio-economic systems, water resources systems, and the impact of glacier changes on the regional water cycle and human society (Anderson and Radić, 2020). The commonly used vulnerability assessment methods of glacier change included vulnerability function model evaluation, a comprehensive index and fuzzy matter-element evaluation (Yang et al, 2015;Mustafa, 2020).…”

“…Now the international research on glacier change vulnerability had converted from conceptual and theoretical qualitative analysis to quantitative research, and its research contents mostly focused on: (1) the construction and measurement of glacier change vulnerability assessment system, different scholars scientifically and objectively select assessment factors based upon the characteristics of the study site, and use relevant models to calculate the vulnerability index (Immerzeel et al, 2020;Mustafa, 2020); (2) studies on the vulnerability of different systems to glacier changes, including human-environmental systems, socio-economic systems, water resources systems, and the impact of glacier changes on the regional water cycle and human society (Anderson and Radić, 2020). The commonly used vulnerability assessment methods of glacier change included vulnerability function model evaluation, a comprehensive index and fuzzy matter-element evaluation (Yang et al, 2015;Mustafa, 2020). However, factors such as fuzzy positioning of research purposes, poor spatial and temporal integrity of data, diversity of evaluation index systems, and differences in evaluation models were the main obstacles for vulnerability assessment (Tian and Chang, 2012).…”

Application of viewshed analysis and probability mapping for search area determination based on the Moors murders on Saddleworth Moor, the United Kingdom

“…This is due to its technological infancy, inherent complexity, and potential for bias [9,10]. Despite the limited practical application of GIS in forensic science, it is commonly used to analyze spatial information, for example, constructing topographical studies, including rivers and roads with user input data [11–14]. Through GIS, it is possible to analyze human and location relationships and provide visual datasets for interpretation [15,16].…”